by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 07, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 9, 2024
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Alabama -3, LSU +3; Over/Under: 58 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Alabama -3, LSU +3; Over/Under: 58.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Alabama -3, LSU +3; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Alabama Crimson Tide: 6-2 (3-2) (7th place, SEC)
LSU Tigers: 6-2 (3-1) (5th place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Alabama Crimson Tide: won their last game at home against the Missouri Tigers 34-0.
LSU Tigers: lost their last game on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies 38-23.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers Preview and Analysis
Alabama is entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Missouri 34-0. Jalen Milroe was the starting QB and he completed 16/26 passes for 215 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Justice Haynes led the team in rushing yards with 79 and 1 TD. Germie Bernard led the receivers with 82 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jihaad Campbell led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Jihaad Campbell led the defense in sacks with 1. Brayson Hubbard and Malachi Moore each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
LSU is entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Texas A&M 38-23. Garrett Nussmeier was the starting QB and he completed 25/50 passes for 405 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Josh Williams led the team in rushing yards with 23. Aaron Anderson led the receivers with 126 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Bradyn Swinson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Bradyn Swinson, Greg Penn III, Zy Alexander, and Jay'viar Suggs each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Alabama vs LSU Prediction
The current betting odds have LSU listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. LSU has looked good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall and their 3-1 conference record which has them near the top of the SEC. Every team in the SEC has a loss this season so they still have a chance to make the CFP, but they really can't afford to lose another game with 2 losses on the season already. They are coming off their first conference loss in their last one, but they are coming out of a bye week now and have had extra time to prepare for this game. They have also looked great in their home games with their 4-0 home record. Meanwhile, Alabama has looked good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall, but their 3-2 conference record has them lower in the SEC. They have a loss in the conference to Vanderbilt which isn't great and they haven't looked good in their road games this season with their 1-2 road record. They are also coming out of a bye week for this game, but this is not an easy environment to go into and LSU will be looking to bounce back in a big way after that bad loss to Texas A&M 2 weeks ago. Alabama has shown cracks on defense this season and LSU has the offense to put up points at home. They will make this a close game right to the end and they have a chance to pull off the upset win too. The best way to place a bet here is on LSU to cover the spread in this game.
Alabama LSU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 9, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is LSU 34 Alabama 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Alabama Crimson Tide: 9-3 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 6-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 10-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 8-4 OVER as a road favorite. 13-4 OVER off a home win. 9-1 OVER off a home win against a conference rival. 13-5 OVER after playing a game at home.
LSU Tigers: 1-4 1H ATS as a home underdog. 7-13 1H ATS against conference opponents. 3-7 1H ATS after playing their last game on the road. 23-12 OVER in all lined games. 8-4 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 15-6 OVER against conference opponents. 5-0 OVER off a loss against a conference rival.
Key Injuries
Alabama Crimson Tide: C. Adams (WR) Out - Lower Leg. K. Sabb (DB) Out - Lower Body.
LSU Tigers: G. Dellinger (OL) Out - Undisclosed. K. Roberts (OL) Out - Undisclosed. P. Malbrue (DE) Out - Undisclosed. K. Makane'ole (DT) Probable - Undisclosed. J. Ibieta (LB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Allen (SAF) Out - Undisclosed. T. Adams (OL) Out - Undisclosed. W. Weeks (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Daniels (WR) Questionable - Ankle. H. Perkins (LB) Out - Knee. K. Parker (WR) Out - Undisclosed. T. Holly (RB) Out - Suspension. J. Guillory (DT) Out - Achilles. J. Emery (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“They’re hunting it. They’re anticipating it a little bit. A little bit more of an attacking mindset, not so much on their heels. Wanted them to really get that shutout there.” - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against Mizzou in their last game.
“That’s twice now that’s happened. It’s unacceptable. We have to get it fixed. That’s never going to happen again, ever.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s loss against Texas A&M in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Williams, Ryan
WR Bernard, Germie
WR Law, Kendrick
TE Dippre, CJ
TE Ouzts, Robbie
QB Milroe, Jalen
RB Miller, Jam
LSU Tigers
WR Hilton Jr., Chris
WR Daniels, CJ
WR Lacy, Kyren
TE Taylor, Mason
QB Nussmeier, Garrett
RB Williams, Josh
Statistical Leaders
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: J. Milroe (1937)
Rushing: J. Miller (450)
Receiving: R. Williams (702)
Touchdowns: J. Milroe (12)
LSU Tigers
Passing: G. Nussmeier (2627)
Rushing: C. Durham (397)
Receiving: K. Lacy (618)
Touchdowns: C. Durham (8)
Coaches:
Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (1st season)
LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
