by AAA Sports
Wednesday, Feb 15, 2023The ACC has not had conference standings this close-knit halfway thru February for quite a fear years. It is typically Duke, UVA, and UNC who are the top every season. We are a little less than a month till Selection Sunday and there is virtually a two-way tie for first, and 4 teams that are at least 2 games out. Louisville has just one win against the ACC, neither UNC nor Duke are ranked and there's been plenty of upsets amongst Conference foes thus far. This Conference is pretty close in terms of standings and power rankings and it presents a lot of value for the Regular Season Conference Outright Winner futures. The THREE teams that I think present the most value are as follows:
Miami FL (+330 : Odds via DraftKings)
I think Miami has a really good shot at winning the ACC. They are 12-4 and positioned in third place, just .5 game out due to playing one more Conference game than Pittsburgh (12-3). Miami has the most efficient Conference-only offense as they have an effective FG of 54.3% and are shooting lights out behind the arc at 37.7%. My biggest fear with Miami is that they are sometimes careless with the ball and they turn it over on 16.1% of their possessions. Their weakest link is on defense, however, they guard the 3PT shot just as well as they shoot it and are holding teams below the NCAA Average in effective FG%. They close out the season against Pittsburgh which can very well make for a thriller and the winner becoming the eventual ACC Regular Season Champions. Their next game is Saturday at home against Wake Forest.
Clemson (+1200 : Odds via DraftKings)
Clemson has had their fair share of time being in the Top 25 however unfortunate losses at inopportune times have taken them out. This does not mean they cannot win the Regular Season Title. Clemson is just 2 games out and has games against 2 of the teams ahead of them to close out the season. Clemson's offense is their weakest link by far. They are shooting with an effective FG of 51.8% and are ranked dead last in the ACC in Offensive Rebound %. They are however the best FT shooting team at 86%. On defense, they are second to Virginia - and not by much. Clemson is holding teams to an effective FG of only 45.9% and teams shoot the 2PT shot at even less than that against them, 44%. Clemson has a shot to win this solely because of how good their defense is and how they can score points in dead time. Their next game is Saturday on the road against Louisville.
North Carolina State (+20000 : Odds via DraftKings)
This is my dark horse to win the ACC in the Regular Season. Even after NC State’s loss the other night to Syracuse, I think this team is too good to have them at such steep +20000 odds. NC State has flown under the radar in this contested conference and it has had some quality wins against good teams both at home and on the road. NC State does not shoot the ball the greatest as they have an effective FG of just 49.2% however it displays EXCELLENT ball control. It has the lowest turnover percentage in the ACC at only 12.5%. This is due in part to why its averaging 89.7 FGs per 100 trips up court. On defense, NC State takes away as many second chances as possible as they are ranked 1 in offensive rebound % taking away 20% of the opposition’s boards. NC State guards the 3PT shot very well as teams are only shooting 30.5% behind the arc against them. It will not be an easy path for NC State due to that loss against Syracuse, however, this team is battle tested and it presents way too much value with these types of odds in my opinion. Its next game is Sunday at home against UNC.
The ACC is wide open with most teams having just 6 games left to play and 5 teams in contention to win the Regular Season Conference Outright. These three teams present the most value given their current place in the standings. The final weekend for ACC play is the weekend of March 4th and it has games including Notre Dame @ Clemson and the biggest one of the season… Pittsburgh @ Miami.
Miami FL (+330 : Odds via DraftKings)
I think Miami has a really good shot at winning the ACC. They are 12-4 and positioned in third place, just .5 game out due to playing one more Conference game than Pittsburgh (12-3). Miami has the most efficient Conference-only offense as they have an effective FG of 54.3% and are shooting lights out behind the arc at 37.7%. My biggest fear with Miami is that they are sometimes careless with the ball and they turn it over on 16.1% of their possessions. Their weakest link is on defense, however, they guard the 3PT shot just as well as they shoot it and are holding teams below the NCAA Average in effective FG%. They close out the season against Pittsburgh which can very well make for a thriller and the winner becoming the eventual ACC Regular Season Champions. Their next game is Saturday at home against Wake Forest.
Clemson (+1200 : Odds via DraftKings)
Clemson has had their fair share of time being in the Top 25 however unfortunate losses at inopportune times have taken them out. This does not mean they cannot win the Regular Season Title. Clemson is just 2 games out and has games against 2 of the teams ahead of them to close out the season. Clemson's offense is their weakest link by far. They are shooting with an effective FG of 51.8% and are ranked dead last in the ACC in Offensive Rebound %. They are however the best FT shooting team at 86%. On defense, they are second to Virginia - and not by much. Clemson is holding teams to an effective FG of only 45.9% and teams shoot the 2PT shot at even less than that against them, 44%. Clemson has a shot to win this solely because of how good their defense is and how they can score points in dead time. Their next game is Saturday on the road against Louisville.
North Carolina State (+20000 : Odds via DraftKings)
This is my dark horse to win the ACC in the Regular Season. Even after NC State’s loss the other night to Syracuse, I think this team is too good to have them at such steep +20000 odds. NC State has flown under the radar in this contested conference and it has had some quality wins against good teams both at home and on the road. NC State does not shoot the ball the greatest as they have an effective FG of just 49.2% however it displays EXCELLENT ball control. It has the lowest turnover percentage in the ACC at only 12.5%. This is due in part to why its averaging 89.7 FGs per 100 trips up court. On defense, NC State takes away as many second chances as possible as they are ranked 1 in offensive rebound % taking away 20% of the opposition’s boards. NC State guards the 3PT shot very well as teams are only shooting 30.5% behind the arc against them. It will not be an easy path for NC State due to that loss against Syracuse, however, this team is battle tested and it presents way too much value with these types of odds in my opinion. Its next game is Sunday at home against UNC.
The ACC is wide open with most teams having just 6 games left to play and 5 teams in contention to win the Regular Season Conference Outright. These three teams present the most value given their current place in the standings. The final weekend for ACC play is the weekend of March 4th and it has games including Notre Dame @ Clemson and the biggest one of the season… Pittsburgh @ Miami.
