by ASA, Inc.
Monday, Oct 02, 2023ASA’s A.L. MLB Series Prediction – Blue Jays vs. Twins
PICK - Toronto Blue Jays +105 to win the series
PICK - Toronto Blue Jays +105 to win the series
We are looking at the series in the American League between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins. The Twins won the weak A.L. Central Division, thus are the hosts in this series despite having two less wins. It is well documented how poorly the Twins have fared in the postseason with 18 straight playoff losses dating back to 2004. Toronto had a team batting average of .256 which was slightly better than the Twins .243 and also owned a better on base percentage. Minnesota had the 7th best overall run differential in the league at +119, Toronto was 13th at +75. The Blue Jays averaged 8.79 hits per game while the Twins averaged 8.24. Minnesota struck out on average 10.21 times per game, while the Blue Jays averaged just 8.04 K’s per game.
You can make a case the Blue Jays have the better overall pitching in this series too with a slight edge in team ERA at 3.77 versus 3.85 for Minnesota. Both teams are very close in strikeouts per game as the Twins ranked 1st in the Bigs, the Jays finished 3rd. Toronto had the stronger bullpen which owned a 3.68 ERA compared to the Twins 3.95 ERA.
Minnesota was 47-34 SU at home this season with an average run differential of plus +0.7 per game, but the Blue Jays were 46-35 SU on the road with an average +/- of +0.8 runs p/game.
The pressure is clearly on the young Twins and if they lose Game 1 it will be tough to recover. The Blue Jays have veteran Kevin Gausman on the mound in Game 1 and the Jays have won 4 of his last six starts. In Gausman’s last two starts he hasn’t allowed an earned run in 13 innings of work. Lopez didn’t finish the season strong with 18 hits allowed, 11 earned runs in just 15.1 innings in his last three starts.
We won’t be surprised when the Blue Jays steal this series.
