In college basketball, I find it most profitable to bet on under the radar matchups. Of course many people will want to bet on the big games, and I do occasionally place wagers on the big games. Still, I have had the most success when betting on the smallest games in conferences that many bettors will simply overlook. I wanted to take a look at five teams off most people’s radar that I believe bettors should keep a close eye on for betting value throughout the season. These are in no particular order.
College of Charleston- It works out perfectly that they have started out the season 0-5 against the spread. Bettors are going to stay away later this season because of what they did in some of these early tournaments. I think that will be a mistake. Pat Kelsey is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have this young team playing good basketball later in the year. It helps that the Colonial Athletic Association is a much weaker league than it was in the past, and Charleston is playing a tough non-conference schedule. They’ll be battle tested from the start!
Towson- The Towson Tigers are 0-6 against the spread so far this year. You might be sensing a theme that I do tend to like betting teams who start poorly on an ATS basis. Bettors tend to throw these teams out to the trash too early. There are some solid betting systems that show in the mid-late season betting on these teams with a poor cover percentage is a very profitable strategy. Towson is an elite offensive rebounding team, and I think they’ll find their footing.
Middle Tennessee State- The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders haven’t played very well so far this year. They are 1-5 ATS on the season thus far. MTSU plays in a weak Conference USA. This is a conference that has gotten MUCH weaker in the last couple seasons. The Blue Raiders routinely have a very good defense under Nicholas McDevitt, and I think that defense will help them start covering spreads later in the season once again. This is a very tall team and that can give them matchup advantages too.
Morehead State- Morehead State is always a solid team, and I expect them to be good once again this year. They have been playing a brutal non-conference schedule. Morehead State was crushed by both Alabama and Purdue already this year. They also lost at Penn State. The Eagles are still one of the teams to beat in a weak Ohio Valley Conference. Morehead State is good at forcing teams to play their style of basketball. They force slower and very physical games.
Furman Furman beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament last year, but they have started off this season 1-4 ATS. They are 40th according to KenPom in minutes continuity from last season. This is a very similar team to last season. Bob Richey is an excellent coach. Let’s hope the market sours a bit on them and we can make money backing the Paladins, who will once again have a nice season.