by Kyle Hunter
Tuesday, May 21, 2024We are about two months into the season. Now is a good time to look at starting pitchers and who is overachieving based on both expectations and advanced metrics. A deep dive into the profile of these pitchers can give some great perspective. Here are five starters who are likely to struggle to keep on the same path they are on so far this season.
- Jose Berrios (2.82 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA) Berrios is bottom 15 in the majors in hard hits allowed. His batted ball profiles consistently look poor. Berrios has allowed just a .229 batting average on balls in play so far this season despite giving up a lot of hard hit balls. He has also stranded 88.6% of runners on base thus far this year. Berrios isn’t a new pitcher. He is a veteran who isn’t bad, but he isn’t nearly as good as he looks right now,.
- Seth Lugo (1.79 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 3.61 SIERA) Seth Lugo is 34.5 years old. He isn’t some youngster who is breaking out. He is a crafty veteran who has good control and a really good curveball. He has stranded a ridiculous 90.1% runners on base this season. Lugo has pitched really well in his most recent outings, but he has also had the good fortune of going against some of the worst offenses in the majors.
- Carlos Rodon (3.27 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and 3.88 SIERA) Rodon is a quality pitcher so I’m not terrible anxious to sell high on him. His advanced metrics definitely suggests his ERA should be going up though. Rodon is stranding 85.9% of runners on base. Rodon is a tricky handicap because he can be absolutely lights out, but he also has the potential to get hit around and give up a big inning at any time.
- Jordan Hicks (2.38 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 4.10 SIERA) Hicks has been one of the best stories in baseball. His transition from the closer role to a very good starter has been a ton of fun. Hicks is one to keep watching closely since he does carry very low home run rates and he has great movement on his pitches. Can he handle the huge jump in workload as we get later in the season though?
- Trevor Williams (2.35 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 4.23 SIERA) Williams is 32 years old and he has consistently been an average or below average starting pitcher. The last two years he has allowed 1.20 and 2.12 home runs per nine innings pitched. So far this year he has allowed a mind boggling low 0.20 home runs per nine innings pitched. His BABIP allowed is only .267 too. Williams doesn’t have swing and miss stuff. He is pitching above his head right now, and I think he is a sell high candidate.
