by Kyle Hunter
Thursday, Jan 19, 2023The NFL playoffs are getting intense now as we try to figure out who will fight for the AFC and NFC Championships next weekend.
I wanted to take a look at 3 different angles that I think could be helpful to bettors the rest of the way in the NFL playoffs.
- Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs- Since 2004 underdogs are hitting at a 55.1% rate in the NFL playoffs. If you narrow it down to underdogs of fewer than ten points the rate becomes 56.8%. That’s a fantastic win rate over a large sample size. These games are often hard fought and tight. The public likes to lay points with the favorites. Frankly, the public hasn’t been very good at betting the NFL playoffs. Be careful with those “easy covers” with the favorites. More often than not the line will move to the favorite this time of the year, so if you are betting the underdog usually waiting until later in the week is a good strategy.
- Unders Outside the Dome- The under is 80-54 with a total of 41 in an NFL playoff game that is not being played in a dome. This one also dates back to 2004. There can be many reasons for why games outdoors this time of the year are better for under bettors. Last week’s contests were great for over bettors in general, but this under angle has worked well in the long run. You’ll want to check the weather before you place your bets this weekend. Look for wind first since it clearly matters the most when betting a total in football.
- NFL Dome Overs- The over is 30-17 since 2004 in games played in a dome. This isn’t as big of a sample size since most games are played outdoors, but a lot of these games have easily gone over the total. There aren’t any games played in domes this coming weekend, but in the weeks ahead there will be games played inside. Remember this angle!
No one angle should be the sole reason you bet a certain side or total, but these are great to have as part of your handicapping toolbox.
