3 Bowl ATS Angles To Watch

College football bowl season is in full swing now. There are several angles to keep an eye on that could help you be successful betting college football during this tricky time of the season. Let’s take a look at three of those angles today.

Bowl Angle #1- Underdogs Against The Public-  Since 2006 Bowl Underdogs Who Receive 40% or Less of the Bets are 172-127 ATS (57.4%). 

The public hasn’t done well betting in bowl season. The public generally likes to bet quite a few favorites. In this case, you are simply looking at out of favor underdogs who could hold value because the line has been moved too much in favor of the opposite team.

I will note that sometimes the public bet percentages can be a bit shaky. Can you trust that the numbers are perfectly up to date? I’m not so sure. Still, this type of angle is helpful in realizing that heavily public sides have done poorly year after year.

Bowl Angle #2- Low ATS Bowl Underdogs. Since 2006 Underdogs who have covered the spread in less than 50% of their regular season games are a whopping 120-88 ATS (57.7% ATS). 

This angle is all about taking teams that have made it to bowl season, but they aren’t teams who have covered at a high rate throughout the year. The teams with a really high ATS cover rate during the regular season tend to carry a point spread tax on them this time of the year. On the other hand, teams who have covered a small percentage of games, but are still good enough to get into bowl season- these are teams who have carried great value in these postseason contests. 

I think this is a strong angle that should continue to work in the future.  At the date of this publication on December 23, there are seven games to go:  Northern Illinois (Dec 23), Tulane (Dec 27), USC (Dec 27), Boston College (Dec 28), Memphis (Dec 29), Toledo (Dec 30) and Wisconsin (Jan 1).

Bowl Angle #3 Good Defenses in Bowl Games A Team Who Allows 3.6 Yards Per Carry Or Less and a Maximum of 5 Yards Per Play. These strong defensive teams are 319-243 ATS (56.8% ATS) since 2006 in bowl games.

Yes offense is more important than it was in the past when the defenses could just dominate, but defense has still been predictive when it comes to covering spreads in bowl season. The best defenses have been great against the number. 

Inside this angle, the teams listed above with great defenses who are also underdogs are an impressive 155-103 ATS (60% ATS) with an ROI of 16%. Look for underdogs who are excellent on defense and you’ll have a good starting point. 

At the date of publication the teams that fit this underdog with a strong defense angle are: Northwestern (Dec 23), Bowling Green (Dec 26), Tulane (Dec 27), Oklahoma (Dec 28), Rutgers- depending on the line at your book (Dec 28), Kentucky (Dec 29), Ole Miss (Dec 30), Maryland (Dec 30), Fla St (Dec 30), Toledo (Dec 30), Alabama (Jan 1), and Wisconsin (Jan 1).