by Al McMordie
Monday, Jun 24, 2024The 2024 NBA Draft will introduce a new format. Unlike past drafts, in which both the first and second rounds were on the same night, this year’s draft will be spread over two days. On Wednesday, June 26, Round 1 will be held at Barclays Center, in Brooklyn. Then, on Thursday, June 27, the venue will shift to ESPN’s Seaport District Studios in Manhattan. The amount of time given to teams to select a player in the second round is also changing. Teams used to have two minutes, but now will have four (which I think is a welcome change, given how many millions are invested in second round draft choices). The time to select a first round pick will remain at five minutes. This season, Atlanta won the lottery and will select first. The Detroit Pistons were the big losers of the lottery (again). They were the worst team last season but will select fifth. Let’s take a look at our projections for the Top 10 picks of the draft.
1. Atlanta Hawks - Zaccharie Risacher, SF/PF, Bourg, France
Atlanta has a lot to figure out beyond which player it tabs as its first selection. The Hawks backcourt tandem hasn’t worked out, so it may trade Trae Young or Dejounte Murray (or both) this summer. Center Clint Cappella may also be moved, and especially if Atlanta chooses Donovan Clingan with this #1 pick. But my feeling is that when all is said and done, Atlanta will go with Zaccharie Risacher, who is a seen as a 3-and-D wing. Risacher made 48.2% of his long distance shots over his first 34 games. And his defense will benefit from his 6’9” wingspan. Risacher is currently -270 to be drafted #1 (all odds courtesy of BetOnline), with Clingan the second choice, at +220.
2. Washington Wizards - Alexandre Sarr, PF/C, Perth, Australia
Alexandre Sarr, in a move to try to dissuade the Hawks from drafting him, did not work out for them. He clearly prefers to go to the Washington Wizards. Many around the league view Sarr’s upside as the highest of any player in this draft, and it’s hard to argue with that. If Sarr doesn’t go first, he’ll surely get taken here, at #2. He’s 7’0”, and covers a lot of ground with his mobility. There’s no doubt he will be a terrific rim protector. The only issue is his offensive game. He does have an improving 3-point shot and could be a stretch-big down the road. But he’s not there yet. Still, his floor in this draft is at #2. The current odds on Sarr to be drafted second is -800.
3. Houston Rockets - Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Kentucky
There’s a decent chance the Houston Rockets might trade down and move this #3 pick to another team looking to draft Donovan Clingan (such as Memphis), in exchange for a veteran player. The Rockets already have a bevy of young talent on their roster, and might prefer to bring in a star player to take a leap this next season. But if they keep this pick, I expect them to pull the trigger on Reed Sheppard, who is the best pure shooter in the draft. The Rockets are driven by analytics, and Sheppard is an analytics darling. Houston was woeful from 3-point range last season (36.1%), so Sheppard would immediately pay dividends with his marksmanship (52.1% on 3s). He is currently the betting favorite to go #3, with his odds at -140. Clingan is next at +240.
4. San Antonio Spurs - Stephon Castle, PG/SG, Connecticut
The San Antonio Spurs hit the jackpot last season with #1 pick, Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs still have many pieces to fill, with the most glaring being at point guard. There are a lot of options available: Stephon Castle, Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic. Castle seems the most likely. But if the Spurs favor Carter (who worked out for San Antonio against Castle earlier this month), then it’s possible they go with a wing like Matas Buzelis or Cody Williams, here, and then go with Carter at #8. However, if Castle is their guy, they’ll take him with their first pick, and then look at getting Williams, or maybe Tidjane Salaun, -- or even Carter -- four picks later. Castle offers the defensive skills valued by Spurs brass, and the playmaking ability the team sorely needs. He’s 6’5”, 210, with a 6’9” wingspan. He’s not proficient from downtown (26.7% on 3s), which is his biggest negative. But he fits their greatest positional need. Castle has the shortest odds to go #4 at +160, with Reed Sheppard next at +375, Zaccharie Risacher at +400 and Buzelis at +450. Castle’s odds to go anywhere in the Top 5 are -160.
5. Detroit Pistons - Matas Buzelis, SF/PF, G League Ignite
The Detroit Pistons had the league's worst record in each of the last two seasons. And they have also had the worst draft lottery luck, as they fell to #5 in both drafts. Owner Tom Gores no doubt wasn’t happy about last season, as the team recently parted ways with coach Monty Williams (who signed a record-setting contract one year ago). So, Williams is still owed a staggering $65 million, as Detroit conducts its search for next season’s coach. Trajan Langdon is tasked with building this roster, and can go in different directions with this pick. The most likely is to take Matas Buzelis, who played in the G League last season. Buzelis is a high-flyer, and is a highlight reel with his dunks. He needs to regain his 3-point shooting form, as it went missing last season (27.3%). He shot well from long distance in high school, so if he gets back to that level, he may develop into the best player of this draft. Buzelis has odds of +130 to be drafted #5, with Cody Williams next at +300. And Buzelis is -130 to be drafted anywhere among the Top 5.
6. Charlotte Hornets - Dalton Knecht, SG/SF, Tennessee
The Charlotte Hornets will have several options with this 6th pick. In an ideal world, the Spurs will bypass Stephon Castle, and the Hornets could choose the UConn guard. Otherwise, Donovan Clingan, Dalton Knecht and Cody Williams will all be in contention. The Hornets need scoring, and floor-spacing, so Knecht makes a lot of sense. He was dynamite offensively for the Volunteers, as he averaged 21.7 ppg on 48.4% FG shooting, including 42.4% from beyond the arc. The odds on Knecht going in the Top 10 are -450, and he’s -155 to be drafted among the first eight picks.
7. Portland Trail Blazers - Donovan Clingan, C, Connecticut
No player better illustrates the fluidity of the top part of this draft than Donovan Clingan. He’s probably one of the two likeliest players (along with Zaccharie Risacher) to be drafted first. But he also could fall as low as #7. At 7’2”, 280 lbs, Clingan was a defensive force for the National Champion Huskies. He will be an elite screener, rebounder and rim protector. Many teams value what he will provide, and he’s the one player in this draft who could motivate teams (like the Chicago Bulls) to trade up for his rights. If Clingan is snapped up earlier, then the Trail Blazers could pull the trigger on a wing like Cody Williams. But if there aren’t any shake-ups through trades, then I like Clingan to find his way to Portland. Interestingly, Clingan’s shortest odds are +220 to be drafted first, and +240 to be drafted third (he’s +850 to go #2).
8. San Antonio Spurs - Devin Carter, PG/SG, Providence
The San Antonio Spurs are the only team to have two picks in the Top 10. That will allow GM Brian Wright to have a lot of flexibility with his first choice, at #4. The glaring need for the Spurs is at point guard, and the question for Wright is, does he go with one point guard or two with his picks. And if the Spurs only want one point guard, then do they use #4 on Stephon Castle or Reed Sheppard, or wait until pick #8 to tab Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham or Nikola Topic. If I was San Antonio’s GM, I would go with Buzelis at #4 and Carter at #8. But they might try to get two point guard prospects out of this draft. If so, then Carter should be their choice, here. This past season, he was a high-volume three-point shooter, and converted 37.7% of almost seven 3-point attempts per game. The odds on Devin Carter going in the Top 10 are -175.
9. Memphis Grizzlies - Cody Wiliams, SF, Colorado
Unfortunately for Oklahoma City, where Cody Williams’ brother, Jaylen, plays, the Thunder won’t likely have the opportunity to pair the siblings together. Williams could go as high as #4 to the Spurs, but probably won’t fall below #9. For much of the early part of his basketball season, the ex-Colorado Buffalo was ranked as high as #1 in 2024 NBA mock drafts. But Williams had an up-and-down season — due, in part, to injuries — and his stock fell. Lately, though, Williams has been inching up the mock draft boards, so landing in the top half of the Lottery is possible. A more likely destination is here at #9, where his ability to score in transition would pay dividends for the Memphis Grizzlies. With his length (7’1” wingspan), he will be able to guard anywhere on the perimeter. But he needs to add weight to his frame to become more physical, and improve his shooting mechanics. Memphis, may, however, trade up to draft Donovan Clingan, who would solve their interior woes. Williams is -130 to be among the first eight players drafted.
10. Utah Jazz - Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS, Adriatic League
Nikola Topic tore his ACL and will be lost for all of next season. That has caused his draft stock to plummet. He may not be drafted this high but any team which gets him should be thrilled five years from now. Indeed, Chet Holmgren finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting this past season, after missing all of the previous season. So, a team needs to take a long view. And Topic is the best playmaking point guard in the draft. He doesn’t have great athleticism, so he won’t be able to blow by defenders. But he will be deadly in transition offense, and in the pick-and-roll. Finally, a side benefit for many rebuilding teams looking to add young talent is that his injury status will HELP a team be worse this next season, and that will come in handy, given the strength of NEXT YEAR's draft class. The odds on Topic going in the Top 10 are +145.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
1. Atlanta Hawks - Zaccharie Risacher, SF/PF, Bourg, France
Atlanta has a lot to figure out beyond which player it tabs as its first selection. The Hawks backcourt tandem hasn’t worked out, so it may trade Trae Young or Dejounte Murray (or both) this summer. Center Clint Cappella may also be moved, and especially if Atlanta chooses Donovan Clingan with this #1 pick. But my feeling is that when all is said and done, Atlanta will go with Zaccharie Risacher, who is a seen as a 3-and-D wing. Risacher made 48.2% of his long distance shots over his first 34 games. And his defense will benefit from his 6’9” wingspan. Risacher is currently -270 to be drafted #1 (all odds courtesy of BetOnline), with Clingan the second choice, at +220.
2. Washington Wizards - Alexandre Sarr, PF/C, Perth, Australia
Alexandre Sarr, in a move to try to dissuade the Hawks from drafting him, did not work out for them. He clearly prefers to go to the Washington Wizards. Many around the league view Sarr’s upside as the highest of any player in this draft, and it’s hard to argue with that. If Sarr doesn’t go first, he’ll surely get taken here, at #2. He’s 7’0”, and covers a lot of ground with his mobility. There’s no doubt he will be a terrific rim protector. The only issue is his offensive game. He does have an improving 3-point shot and could be a stretch-big down the road. But he’s not there yet. Still, his floor in this draft is at #2. The current odds on Sarr to be drafted second is -800.
3. Houston Rockets - Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Kentucky
There’s a decent chance the Houston Rockets might trade down and move this #3 pick to another team looking to draft Donovan Clingan (such as Memphis), in exchange for a veteran player. The Rockets already have a bevy of young talent on their roster, and might prefer to bring in a star player to take a leap this next season. But if they keep this pick, I expect them to pull the trigger on Reed Sheppard, who is the best pure shooter in the draft. The Rockets are driven by analytics, and Sheppard is an analytics darling. Houston was woeful from 3-point range last season (36.1%), so Sheppard would immediately pay dividends with his marksmanship (52.1% on 3s). He is currently the betting favorite to go #3, with his odds at -140. Clingan is next at +240.
4. San Antonio Spurs - Stephon Castle, PG/SG, Connecticut
The San Antonio Spurs hit the jackpot last season with #1 pick, Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs still have many pieces to fill, with the most glaring being at point guard. There are a lot of options available: Stephon Castle, Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic. Castle seems the most likely. But if the Spurs favor Carter (who worked out for San Antonio against Castle earlier this month), then it’s possible they go with a wing like Matas Buzelis or Cody Williams, here, and then go with Carter at #8. However, if Castle is their guy, they’ll take him with their first pick, and then look at getting Williams, or maybe Tidjane Salaun, -- or even Carter -- four picks later. Castle offers the defensive skills valued by Spurs brass, and the playmaking ability the team sorely needs. He’s 6’5”, 210, with a 6’9” wingspan. He’s not proficient from downtown (26.7% on 3s), which is his biggest negative. But he fits their greatest positional need. Castle has the shortest odds to go #4 at +160, with Reed Sheppard next at +375, Zaccharie Risacher at +400 and Buzelis at +450. Castle’s odds to go anywhere in the Top 5 are -160.
5. Detroit Pistons - Matas Buzelis, SF/PF, G League Ignite
The Detroit Pistons had the league's worst record in each of the last two seasons. And they have also had the worst draft lottery luck, as they fell to #5 in both drafts. Owner Tom Gores no doubt wasn’t happy about last season, as the team recently parted ways with coach Monty Williams (who signed a record-setting contract one year ago). So, Williams is still owed a staggering $65 million, as Detroit conducts its search for next season’s coach. Trajan Langdon is tasked with building this roster, and can go in different directions with this pick. The most likely is to take Matas Buzelis, who played in the G League last season. Buzelis is a high-flyer, and is a highlight reel with his dunks. He needs to regain his 3-point shooting form, as it went missing last season (27.3%). He shot well from long distance in high school, so if he gets back to that level, he may develop into the best player of this draft. Buzelis has odds of +130 to be drafted #5, with Cody Williams next at +300. And Buzelis is -130 to be drafted anywhere among the Top 5.
6. Charlotte Hornets - Dalton Knecht, SG/SF, Tennessee
The Charlotte Hornets will have several options with this 6th pick. In an ideal world, the Spurs will bypass Stephon Castle, and the Hornets could choose the UConn guard. Otherwise, Donovan Clingan, Dalton Knecht and Cody Williams will all be in contention. The Hornets need scoring, and floor-spacing, so Knecht makes a lot of sense. He was dynamite offensively for the Volunteers, as he averaged 21.7 ppg on 48.4% FG shooting, including 42.4% from beyond the arc. The odds on Knecht going in the Top 10 are -450, and he’s -155 to be drafted among the first eight picks.
7. Portland Trail Blazers - Donovan Clingan, C, Connecticut
No player better illustrates the fluidity of the top part of this draft than Donovan Clingan. He’s probably one of the two likeliest players (along with Zaccharie Risacher) to be drafted first. But he also could fall as low as #7. At 7’2”, 280 lbs, Clingan was a defensive force for the National Champion Huskies. He will be an elite screener, rebounder and rim protector. Many teams value what he will provide, and he’s the one player in this draft who could motivate teams (like the Chicago Bulls) to trade up for his rights. If Clingan is snapped up earlier, then the Trail Blazers could pull the trigger on a wing like Cody Williams. But if there aren’t any shake-ups through trades, then I like Clingan to find his way to Portland. Interestingly, Clingan’s shortest odds are +220 to be drafted first, and +240 to be drafted third (he’s +850 to go #2).
8. San Antonio Spurs - Devin Carter, PG/SG, Providence
The San Antonio Spurs are the only team to have two picks in the Top 10. That will allow GM Brian Wright to have a lot of flexibility with his first choice, at #4. The glaring need for the Spurs is at point guard, and the question for Wright is, does he go with one point guard or two with his picks. And if the Spurs only want one point guard, then do they use #4 on Stephon Castle or Reed Sheppard, or wait until pick #8 to tab Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham or Nikola Topic. If I was San Antonio’s GM, I would go with Buzelis at #4 and Carter at #8. But they might try to get two point guard prospects out of this draft. If so, then Carter should be their choice, here. This past season, he was a high-volume three-point shooter, and converted 37.7% of almost seven 3-point attempts per game. The odds on Devin Carter going in the Top 10 are -175.
9. Memphis Grizzlies - Cody Wiliams, SF, Colorado
Unfortunately for Oklahoma City, where Cody Williams’ brother, Jaylen, plays, the Thunder won’t likely have the opportunity to pair the siblings together. Williams could go as high as #4 to the Spurs, but probably won’t fall below #9. For much of the early part of his basketball season, the ex-Colorado Buffalo was ranked as high as #1 in 2024 NBA mock drafts. But Williams had an up-and-down season — due, in part, to injuries — and his stock fell. Lately, though, Williams has been inching up the mock draft boards, so landing in the top half of the Lottery is possible. A more likely destination is here at #9, where his ability to score in transition would pay dividends for the Memphis Grizzlies. With his length (7’1” wingspan), he will be able to guard anywhere on the perimeter. But he needs to add weight to his frame to become more physical, and improve his shooting mechanics. Memphis, may, however, trade up to draft Donovan Clingan, who would solve their interior woes. Williams is -130 to be among the first eight players drafted.
10. Utah Jazz - Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS, Adriatic League
Nikola Topic tore his ACL and will be lost for all of next season. That has caused his draft stock to plummet. He may not be drafted this high but any team which gets him should be thrilled five years from now. Indeed, Chet Holmgren finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting this past season, after missing all of the previous season. So, a team needs to take a long view. And Topic is the best playmaking point guard in the draft. He doesn’t have great athleticism, so he won’t be able to blow by defenders. But he will be deadly in transition offense, and in the pick-and-roll. Finally, a side benefit for many rebuilding teams looking to add young talent is that his injury status will HELP a team be worse this next season, and that will come in handy, given the strength of NEXT YEAR's draft class. The odds on Topic going in the Top 10 are +145.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
