2023 MLB Real or Fake: Minnesota Twins

2023 MLB Real or Fake: Minnesota Twins

As we close the first month of the season, several teams are off to surprising starts to the season. The Minnesota Twins were contenders for much of the 2022 season before collapsing to 78-84 with a 11-22 run from September 1 to the end of the season, handing the division title to Cleveland. So far in April 2023 the Twins look like the top threat in the AL Central, is the start for the Twins sustainable or is or is this a fake short term upswing that will end with disappointment again?

Minnesota is 16-12 so far this season but its scoring differential has been modest at just +22 and the difference in the win column is built entirely on going 5-1 vs. the struggling Royals so far this season. Minnesota has already won a series vs. the Astros however while also taking four of seven against the Yankees for a rare outcome for the franchise against a recent nemesis. 

Minnesota is 3-4 in one-run games and has not played Detroit yet this season as even with the adjustments to the division schedules in 2023, the Twins should have a favorable overall draw in a weak AL Central division. The pitching staff for the Twins is second in baseball in producing strikeouts for a major change of course from recent seasons and the Twins are a top 10 performer in most pitching areas with a solid bullpen and one of the more complete rotations in the American League. 

While Kenta Maeda has struggled, the pick-up of Pablo Lopez is paying dividends while Joe Ryan has pitched well. Sonny Gray has some of the best numbers in all of baseball in the first month of the season. A solid start to the season for Tyler Mahle is now in question with an elbow issue as the once solid rotation depth could look less reliable a few weeks down the road.  

Minnesota’s offense has hit home runs but mostly has average to below average results in most offensive categories, offering a low batting average and a high strikeout rate. Byron Buxton hasn’t been playing in the outfield to diminish his value while Nick Gordon and Carlos Correa have struggled at the plate after making significant contributions last season. Joey Gallo has regained his home run stroke however as potentially a great pick-up and the Twins have been successful even with Jorge Polanco missing the first few weeks of the season. 

Minnesota’s defensive rating has been mediocre so far this season and the Twins appear to have not received the notice on the new rule changes that are more favorable to base running with only three stolen bases, all from newcomer Michael A. Taylor who has been a bright spot in the lineup as well as filling in for Buxton in center field. Alex Kirilloff is almost up to a full workload at AAA and could join the Twins in a few weeks as well for another possible boost to the lineup. 

The early May schedule for the Twins offers an opportunity with a road trip vs. division foes Chicago and Cleveland to potentially create further separation in the division race. The Twins went just 6-13 vs. Cleveland last season despite even scoring in the series as last year’s team had poor close-game results. Overall, the depth on the roster looks more capable of surviving the expected injury toll. The AL Central again looks like a division that will not require an elite record to win and Minnesota likely has more staying power as a playoff threat than even the current solid start suggests. 

Verdict on the 2023 Minnesota Twins start: Real