by Nelly's Sports
Saturday, Apr 29, 20232023 MLB Real or Fake: Chicago Cubs
As we close the first month of the season, several teams are off to surprising starts to the season. The Chicago Cubs are among the pleasant surprises with a winning record and one of the best run differentials in the National League. Is the start for Chicago a real sign of progress for the franchise or is this a fake short term upswing that will not be sustained?
Heading into the final weekend in April the Cubs are a top five scoring team on offense and a top five runs allowed team on defense as the numbers are certainly real for the Cubs, leading the NL in scoring differential as of April 29. The Cubs are hitting for batting average and are also a top five home run team so far this season led by Patrick Wisdom. Justin Steele also owns some of the best numbers of any starting pitcher at this point in the season.
The Cub are just 6-8 vs. winning teams however and have produced several blowout results to inflate the scoring differential. A 3-0 interleague series in Oakland where the Cubs outscored the Athletics 26-3 is accounting for almost the entire positive ledger for the Cubs in the standings and scoring numbers as well. The Cubs have just a .500 record at home and are .500 on the road outside of Oakland as there are some flaws in the numbers.
Chicago has not been swept this season however and is just 2-3 in one-run games as the record has not benefitted from an unusual number of narrow wins. The Cubs have gone 7-2 in interleague play and have already faced the Dodgers seven times while also playing several other playoff contenders for an early season path that looked difficult at the outset of the season.
The rotation was a big question mark for Chicago entering the season and Kyle Hendricks opened the season on the IL while acquisition Jameson Taillon has joined him after making only three starts. Steele has taken some time to develop since being drafted in 2014 and while he has overachieved to some degree in the first month, he was successful last season and could be a true #1 starter.
Expecting Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly to continue strong early season paces may be a more difficult result however as Stroman has a career high K/9 and a career low BABIP so far in six starts this season. Smyly’s career has mostly been an inconsistent one and he could see his numbers slide in a larger sample size as well. The Cubs will need to use a patchwork back of the rotation in the short term and Hayden Wesneski has endured mixed results so far while the bullpen for the Cubs has been a below average performing unit so far this season.
The Cubs do have a reasonable schedule to start May but will face a difficult stretch in the second half of the month with series in Houston and Philadelphia while a home stand includes the Mets and the Rays as while the Cubs will be above .500 through April, doing so through May looks less likely. Chicago won 74 games last season and while a season of improvement is now likely, winding up significantly above .500 and competing for a playoff spot still seems unlikely even with an encouraging start to the season.
Verdict on the 2023 Chicago Cubs start: Fake
