2023 MLB Futures: National League

2023 MLB Futures: National League

Written by Nelly’s Sportsline contributor Forrest Allen

Like baseball teams in spring training, hope springs eternal for bettors at the beginning of a baseball season for futures bets.  While futures can be a difficult market because there isn’t another side to offset the risk, the allure and fun of picking a team a riding with it all season is incomparable. Futures also help insulate you from the randomness associated with a single game in a 162-game season.

We have highlighted 2 teams below we believe to have a bright future (yep, it was intentional, but no more) with respect to the 2023 season.

Atlanta Braves: 

Braves general manager, Alex Anthopolous, either knows Jedi-level mind control, has dirt on all of his players, or created a magnetic clubhouse culture. Irrespective of what superpowers he may or may not have, the core of players he’s locked up (well below market value no less) is the envy of every team.

The Braves enter 2023 off the heels of a 101-win season and a 5th straight division title in the unquestioned toughest division in baseball. They accomplished this despite losing their best player and team leader in Freddie Freeman the year before, and will look to repeat the feat again after Dansby Swanson signed with the Chicago Cubs.  This success came with 2x All-Star Ozzie Albies on playing 64 games and Ronald Acuna Jr. missing over 40 games and clearly still recovering from ACL surgery performed in July 2021. 

Their reemergence could realistically result in the Braves having the best offense. Austin Riley and Matt Olson finished in the top-10 in MVP voting in 2022 and 2021 respectively. Michael Harris is the reigning rookie of year, and Sean Murphy put up 5.1 WAR last year; a total good for second in baseball.  

The rotation will be led by Max Fried who finished second in Cy Young voting last year and Spencer Strider who broke the rookie record for strikeouts in a single season with 202 despite just 131.2 IP. Charlie Morton will provide proven veteran leadership to go with a projected ERA under 4, and Kyle Wright looks to be fulfilling his potential as a top-5 overall draft pick after a top-10 finish in Cy Young voting. The battle for the 5th spot will likely go to another first round draft pick in Jared Shuster or Ian Anderson whose 35.2 postseason IP resulting in a 1.26 ERA and an average of more than a strikeout per inning.

Proven relievers AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez, and Colin McHugh will serve as the bridge to closer Raisel Iglesais, who allowed just 2 runs in 26.1 innings after coming over from the Angels in a trade.  Lefties Dylan Lee and Lucas Luetge can get hitters from both sides of the plate out. The biggest question marks will be two former stars who’ve battled injuries, Nick Anderson and Kirby Yates.  If either can regain a fraction of their greatness from 2019 (both averaged over 15 K/9 and Yates had 41 saves and 1.19 ERA), the Braves would be thrilled. 

Fangraphs gives the Braves a 15.5 % to win it all this year; the highest odds of any team and 25% higher than the next highest team (San Diego).  At +900, there’s real value here as the Fangraph’s odds suggest the number should be closer to +545. 

Pick: Braves to win World Series +900, Braves to win NL East +140

San Diego Padres:

The Padres will win the NL West in 2023.  I’m not sure if that is a “hot take” as the kids today say, but it’d be the first time in 17 years that has happened. It would be the first time in 9 years someone other than the Dodgers won it. Last year, the Dodgers finished 22 games ahead of the Padres.  So what has changed such to cause such a seismic shift in what will be one of baseball’s most watched division races? 

The Padres have an expected payroll that that now exceeds the Dodgers for the first time in history (probably…I didn’t source 75 years’ worth of payroll data).  Peter Seidler, the Padres’ owner, has given GM AJ Preller the directive to assemble a roster than can win the World Series, and he’s done exactly that. The Padres brought in Xander Bogarts on an 11-year, $280 million deal to play shortstop and lead off for a lineup whose 1-4 may be the best in baseball with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. when he’s eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20th. The rest of the lineup features 2-time All-Star Jake Cronenworth, former KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, and Gold Glover Trent Grisham.  A resurgent Matt Carpenter will start out in RF and replace Nelson Cruz at DH when Tatis returns. 

While not as deep as other rotations, the star power at the top is real. I can assure you no lineup would be excited to see Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell in a playoff series.  After a a few bumps in the road after being traded, Josh Hader righted the ship late in the year returning to his status as one of the most feared pitchers in baseball.  He will lead a bullpen that should be able to close out any game the Padres lead after 5 or 6 innings.  Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and Drew Pomeranz are all strikeout artists projected to average 11 K/9; a key trait for any good bullpen.

The Padres’ ascent pairs nicely with the Dodgers taking a step back. Trea Turner left for the Phillies, and his intended replacement, Gavin Lux, tore his ACL in spring training and will miss all of 2023. Despite Turners departure, the Dodgers still have star power in Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith. However, the team’s depth will be tested in a real way.  Roster Resource projects 4 (JD Martinez, Trayce Thompson, Miguel Rojas, and David Peralta) of the 9 batters to have a WAR less than 2, the threshold for what is considered league average. One of the players not included in this group is rookie 2B Miguel Vargas who fractured his pinky finger in early in spring and was still playing but instructed not to swing at any pitches until medically cleared. 

The pitching staff will miss starter Walker Buehler who had Tommy John surgery last August and relivers JP Feyereisen and Blake Treinen who had shoulder surgery and Daniel Hudson who had knee surgery. 

Pick: Padres to win NL West +120

Forrest Allen has a Masters of Science in Business Analytics from NYU specializing in the development of machine learning models for sports application.