2023 MLB End of June – Real or Fake: Miami Marlins

Miami has turned in a terrific month of June to sit with one of the better records in the National League as the All-Star break approaches. Can the Marlins stay in the mix as a NL wild card this season? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Miami Marlins, who were priced around +430 at the beginning of the season to make the playoffs. 

 

Through June 29, the Marlins have an exactly even scoring differential, climbing out of what has been a negative number most of the season by going 19-7 and +45 in scoring in the month of June so far. Many expected a season of improvement for Miami but in a division with the 2021 World Series champions, the 2022 NL champions, and a Mets squad that spent a lot of money in the offseason, climbing the ladder to a playoff position in the NL East looked difficult. 

 The division picture has changed significantly however as while the Braves may be the best team in baseball, the Mets have been a huge disappointment and could be trade deadline sellers. Philadelphia has been competitive and is six games above .500 as a threat to make another late season run, but the Phillies don’t look quite as formidable as they did late last season. 

 

Miami has undoubtedly had great fortune to earn this record as a 19-5 record in one-run results attests. Miami is also 4-1 in extra-inning games. The recent run of success in June has not been built on narrow wins, and the offense has improved its scoring in every month this season. 

 

Miami’s record in the division is marginal going 11-12 vs. the NL East but they have seven games with the Braves already out of the way and will face Atlanta just three times in August and September. Miami’s record is also built on going 20-7 vs. the American League but that includes series wins over decent teams, going a combined 10-2 vs. Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, and the LA Angels. The remaining schedule for Miami does grade as the fourth most difficult in the NL as they still must face the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers in interleague play. The Marlins will also face the Dodgers six times, but they also still have 26 games remaining vs. the Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Tigers, and Mets. 

 

While Luis Arraez chasing .400 is getting the headlines, Jorge Soler has been a top power hitter for the Marlins and Miami should receive a boost with the recent return of Jazz Chisolm, Jr. Miami has a low-strikeout lineup and the scoring numbers have been climbing upward in recent weeks even while still ranking in the bottom 10 of MLB for the season.

 

The key for Miami staying relevant is an elite pitching staff as the Marlins are a top 10 team in MLB in opposing runs allowed, OPS allowed, and batting average allowed. Miami has allowed the second fewest home runs in MLB and is third in MLB with a 9.6 K/9 for the staff. Those numbers have come even while 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has not matched last season’s success. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett give the Marlins two high-ceiling left-handers while Eury Perez has also turned in very effective results. Edward Carbera is on the IL right now but could help the team late in the season. Bryan Hoeing has also looked like a useful option in the rotation as the depth on the staff looks excellent. The Miami bullpen has average season numbers but has been a key component to the success in close games and in the June surge. 

 

Very few teams have the type of pitching that Miami has right now and while the Marlins are unlikely to be overly aggressive at the trade deadline, it seems unlikely that the Phillies will go all-in either, as the path to stay in wild card contention is there, even if catching the Braves in the division race will be a long shot.