by Nelly's Sports
Monday, Jul 31, 2023The American Athletic Conference has undergone a radical transformation for the 2023 season with three high-profile programs exiting and six former Conference USA teams joining the conference for a 14-team league. Adding to the uncertainty is that half of the conference is going to be in a coaching transition season in 2023. With an eight-game league schedule among the 14-team league, the schedules will feature great imbalance. Here is a quick snapshot of how things look to start the season.
Willie Fritz has only been at Tulane since 2016 but he is the longest-tenured head coach in the AAC and the program is coming off an amazing season, finishing as AAC champions and Cotton Bowl champions with a memorable comeback win over USC. Tulane is the favorite in the conference with Michael Pratt returning at quarterback though the schedule has some challenges. Tulane avoids SMU but must play at Memphis and at Florida Atlantic, before hosting UTSA in the regular season finale.
UTSA is 30-10 since Jeff Traylor took over in 2020 for an amazing run of success and quarterback Frank Harris has been there for all of it with Harris returning for his fifth season with the Roadrunners. UTSA makes the leap to the AAC after back-to-back Conference USA titles, though the program is still searching for its first bowl win. UTSA avoids Memphis and SMU but plays at FAU and at Tulane for a mixed bag in the schedule draw in 2023.
Futures prices on SMU continue to be picked at as SMU has passed UTSA as the second favorite in the conference at a few outlets. That is even with prolific quarterback Tanner Mordecai now at Wisconsin and with Rhett Lashlee’s first season with the Mustangs being an underwhelming 7-6 campaign. The 2023 conference schedule is the reason for the interest as SMU does not play Tulane, UTSA, or FAU this season. SMU faces a pair of Big XII powers in September outside of the conference but then has arguably the most favorable draw in the AAC.
Former Houston and Texas head coach Tom Herman is back in the American as the new head coach at Florida Atlantic. The Owls have won just five games in each of the past three seasons under Willie Taggart following the great success for the program from 2017-19 under Lane Kiffin. The chance for FAU to reestablish itself as a conference title contender is there this season, even in a new conference, with great returning experience even in a coaching change season. The schedule avoids SMU and Memphis, while the heavyweight tests vs. UTSA, and Tulane will both be in Boca Raton where the Owls are 29-9 S/U since 2017.
Memphis has a favorable road path this season as the Tigers could wind up favored in all five of its road games this season including the four AAC tests. That could mean Memphis is a threat to breakthrough to the upper tier of the league after back-to-back disappointing 3-5 conference seasons. Memphis will play Tulane and SMU at home this season with Memphis 16-4 S/U in home games under Ryan Silverfield. Seth Henigan is one of the few returning veteran quarterbacks in the league as well as Memphis is a worthy candidate in the race even with a bit less returning experience overall than some of the other contenders.
The 2023 projections and the current marketplace pricing in the AAC display a massive gap between the top five and the rest of the league as one of the five above squads seems likely to win the conference title. Among the rest of the league, teams to consider being bullish on relative to last season’s results and the current valuation include Temple, Navy, and Charlotte. Teams that could slip from being bowl teams last season to struggling with losing records in 2023 could be North Texas, East Carolina, and UAB with the disparities in the 2023 schedules being a significant factor.
