by Al McMordie
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2020The NCAA Football season has completed seven weeks. Meanwhile, the Big 10 Conference will play its first games this week. So, it's a good time to take stock of what we've seen so far in this 2020 season.
The most noticeable trend has been that underdogs have done very well against the point spread. Overall, underdogs are 80-60-2 ATS. And dogs have done well both at home (33-22-1 ATS) and on the road (47-38-1 ATS).
If we go further within the numbers, we find that the biggest underdogs have done the best. NCAA dogs getting more than 13 points have gone 36-19 ATS, including 28-10 ATS in conference games. But underdogs of 13 or less points have only gone 44-41 ATS (21-16-1 ATS at home; 23-25-1 ATS on the road).
Perhaps the most noteworthy trend has been to play on underdogs that did not own a winning record (which would include underdogs playing their first game of the season). These puppies have barked the loudest, with a 65-35 ATS record. In contrast, winning teams have gone just 15-25 ATS when installed as an underdog!
Teams off an upset loss have not shown a tendency to bounce back this season, as they've gone 8-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset loss. And teams off an upset win have gone 12-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset win.
Interestingly, rested teams have gone 13-20 ATS vs. unrested opponents (5-10 ATS as a favorite; 8-10 ATS as an underdog).
Finally, revenge-minded teams have gone 45-41-1 ATS, with the underdogs going 34-28-1 ATS, but the favorites lagging behind at 11-13 ATS.
The most noticeable trend has been that underdogs have done very well against the point spread. Overall, underdogs are 80-60-2 ATS. And dogs have done well both at home (33-22-1 ATS) and on the road (47-38-1 ATS).
If we go further within the numbers, we find that the biggest underdogs have done the best. NCAA dogs getting more than 13 points have gone 36-19 ATS, including 28-10 ATS in conference games. But underdogs of 13 or less points have only gone 44-41 ATS (21-16-1 ATS at home; 23-25-1 ATS on the road).
Perhaps the most noteworthy trend has been to play on underdogs that did not own a winning record (which would include underdogs playing their first game of the season). These puppies have barked the loudest, with a 65-35 ATS record. In contrast, winning teams have gone just 15-25 ATS when installed as an underdog!
Teams off an upset loss have not shown a tendency to bounce back this season, as they've gone 8-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset loss. And teams off an upset win have gone 12-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset win.
Interestingly, rested teams have gone 13-20 ATS vs. unrested opponents (5-10 ATS as a favorite; 8-10 ATS as an underdog).
Finally, revenge-minded teams have gone 45-41-1 ATS, with the underdogs going 34-28-1 ATS, but the favorites lagging behind at 11-13 ATS.
