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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/02/2025

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 230 (all odds from DraftKings). The Indiana Pacers play at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Sacramento Kings travel to Washington to face the Wizards as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The Boston Celtics are home against the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 213. The Houston Rockets host the Utah Jazz at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238. The Denver Nuggets are home against the San Antonio Spurs at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 235.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Detroit Pistons on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 18-point favorite with a total of 216.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New York Rangers are home against the Minnesota Wild on TNT as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the Washington Capitals as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche plays at Chicago against the Blackhawks on TNT at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -360 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks are home against the Seattle Kraken at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has the first two games in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State battles Butler at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5. Nebraska challenges Georgetown at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds host the Texas Rangers as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Tampa Bay to face the Rays as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The St. Louis Cardinals are home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:15 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Washington Nationals play in Toronto to go against the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are in Oakland to play the A’s at 3:35 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros host the San Francisco Giants as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers travel to Seattle to play the Mariners as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets play in Miami against the Marlins at 4:40 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Colorado Rockies at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 8:38 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League continues with six games. Five matches start at 2:45 p.m. ET. Bournemouth is home against Ipswich Town as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Brighton and Hove Albion host the Aston Villa as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City hosts Leicester City on the USA Network as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Crystal Palace visits Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Everton at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.  

Valero Texas Open Preview and Best Bets

Min Woo Lee held off Sunday back nine charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to capture his first PGA Tour title with a one shot win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. San Antonio will be abuzz this weekend with the PGA Tour in town along with the city hosting the Final Four and even the Cleveland Cavalier make an appearance on Friday. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010. TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which reduces some of the distance because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind. Trying to defend his 2024 win is Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his second career PGA Tour win in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. He maintained a six-shot lead with nine holes remaining but McCarthy birdied his final seven holes to force the playoff which Bhatia won on the first hole. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Bhatia will have a tough time defending against a talented field. Eight players ranked in the OWGR Top 25 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. Ludvig Aberg (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Corey Conners (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20/1) are the chalky favorites this week. Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter. There have been weather issues each of the last three weeks, leading to a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, a Thursday/Friday wind wave at the Valspar Championship and heavy rain and storms leading to delays and ball in hand for the first three days in Houston. The biggest threat of rain in the forecast is overnight Friday into Saturday so precipitation looks clean. The wind will be lurking as usual but should not make a big impact with the worst of it coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thursday will be relatively calm and after that, gusts will not be constant and top out around 20-23 mph Friday-Sunday so this looks to be the first time in a month we need not be weather concerned. Top four key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenSand Saves GainedStrokes Gained: Off-The-Tee Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Jordan SpiethOdds: Win 2,000 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 10,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 525.00 Spieth has been inconsistent in most areas but has shown flashes in all SG categories. He has not won since 2022 when he was +0.99 in SG: Total and in six starts this year, he is +0.90 so he is close. In his last start at the Valspar Championship, he finished T28 where his iron game was dialed in as he was +1.96 in SG: Approach and his issue was surprisingly with the driver as he was -0.32 in SG: Off-The-Tee, only the third time in his last 23 starts he has been (-) in that category. He has a T4 and a T9 this year and in both events, his putter was on fire and that will not be needed here as his other strengths can get him over the top. Daniel BergerOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00 It has been a long, hard comeback for Berger. After missing the latter half of 2022 and all of 2023, most of 2024 was a struggle but he regained his form in the Fall Swing with a T2 and a T7. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts this season, he has five straight top 25s including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. He is (+) in all SG categories and he is No. 3 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained so his short game is fine tuned. He is No. 20 in SG: Approach and has moved up to No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee while his putting has trended up after almost every event. Bud CauleyOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Cauley has not won in a decade but he is now fully healthy after recovering from a car accident that cost him all but one event from 2021-2023. Last year was a struggle obviously and while it has only been six starts this year, his +1.30 SG: Total is the best of his career and he is in great form with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the Valspar Championship. Only seven players in the field are ranked in the top 40 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-The-Green, Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance and he is one of them while sitting in the top 10 in SG: Approach. Not to mention, he is No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee so his overall game puts him in great position. Lee HodgesOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 Hodges closed last season with a T8, T16 and T5 in three of his last four starts and started this season with a T10 at the Sony open and a T9 at the Farmers but he sustained a rib injury that affected him in his next two starts. He had to take six weeks off but he came back last week to finish T11 in Houston so he has not missed a beat. He was one of the worst putters last year and was (-) in SG: Putting in 11 of his last 12 starts but is (+) in five of six this season which is a bonus to go along with his elite ball striking where he has been (+) in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and is No. 9 in the field in that category and has been (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all six starts. Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 35,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,750.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 We ran with Smalley last week and he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio by one shot, his second MC in as many weeks but we are going with him again in a buy low spot as his odds have gone up considerably. This came after four straight T21 or better finishes so we are not jumping off just yet. He was (-) in SG: Approach in those last two events which could not make up for spectacular driving and that has been his go to since last July. Like Berger, his short game is spot on as he is No. 10 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained. He had a MC here last year but was coming off six straight MCs. Results through Texas Children's Houston Open (9 Tournaments): Win: -1,500Top Five: -3,375Top Ten: -775

Chris Beard's Ole Miss: Dangerous Dog (if and when they are not favored)

Ole Miss was a dangerous underdog in one of the three showdowns between the SEC and the Big Ten in the Sweet Sixteen. Florida made a strong case that the SEC is the superior conference with their 16-point victory against Maryland in a Sweet Sixteen game played the night before. The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game. What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays. Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line. Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle. The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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