The UEFA Conference League is set to kick off for the season with the start of the League Phase on Wednesday, October 2. This is only the 4th edition of the competition as it was first introduced in the 2021/22 season, but there have already been some big changes to the format due to the changes in both Champions League and Europa League. Olympiacos is the current champion of the competition, but that win earned them a spot in Europa League so there will be a new champion this season. This is also going to be the first year of the competition that no new teams can drop down from Europa League so the winner of this competition this season has to come from this field of clubs as there will be no new clubs added later on. In previous years, there was a very good chance that the winner of the competition was not even going to be a team that started in the competition, but now with the new format, that is no longer the case. With that in mind, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Conference League Title for the 2024/25 season.
To Win Outright
Chelsea +175: Chelsea is coming into this competition as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Chelsea is under new management this season and after years of turbulence between all of the signings of players and the revolving door of managers, they have finally found some stability this season. They have picked their core group of players to build around and they are off to a very good start this season, sitting in 4th in the Premier League after 6 matches this season. The Premier League is going to be a big focus for them this year as they will be pushing to win the Premier League Title or at least finish top 4 to secure a Champions League spot, but this will also be a good competition for them to focus on. They were not in any European competitions last season so they will use this competition as a way to get used to playing those extra midweek matches. Chelsea has one of the better squads in this whole competition, possibly even the best squad, but playing in the Premier League could take its toll. Chelsea has a lot of quality and they could be in the race for the top 4 near the end of the season. Winning this title will be a focus for them, but that only gets them into Europa League next season, so if they are in a position to make the top 4 in the Premier League this year and earn a Champions League spot instead, their focus could turn away from this competition to avoid fatigue down the stretch. Chelsea has the best squad in the competition, but there are many factors late in the season that could affect how they play deeper in the tournament. There are also some very good smaller clubs that Chelsea could overlook deeper into the competition and that is something that has been a factor for these bigger clubs in these smaller tournaments. Chelsea has some value at this price to lift the trophy, considering their squad strength and depth.
Real Betis +400: Real Betis is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Real Betis has a very good squad, but they are off to a shaky start in La Liga. They have been in better form recently and have the potential to be a very dangerous team once they get going, but they also have a lot of liability in this competition. La Liga is always a bigger focus for this club as there is usually the 4th place spot up for grabs in their domestic league so getting to Champions League is always going to be their priority. They played very well in their 1 qualifying round to make it to this League Phase, but they struggled in the competition last season when put up against better squads. They were actually in Europa League last season and only finished 3rd in the group stage, finishing behind Rangers and Sparta Prague who are both bigger clubs from smaller leagues, and then they dropped down to the Conference League playoffs which they lost to Dinamo Zagreb in. Real Betis has also struggled in away matches in their own domestic league this season so traveling to these other countries for their matches is going to take a toll on them. They do have a more favorable path to get through the League Phase, but the knockout rounds is where they are going to struggle and it will not take much to get them knocked out with their away troubles. Real Betis has the squad to make a deep run in this competition, but they do not have what it takes to go all the way and they will eventually run into a better club that bests them. There is no real value at this price for Real Betis to lift the trophy.
Fiorentina +500: Fiorentina is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina made some moves to improve their team in the transfer window, but it has not paid off this season. They are off to an awful start in Serie A this season with just 1 win in their first 6 matches. They also have just 1 loss in that span though, drawing many of their matches to start the season, and even when they were in the qualifying round for this competition, they drew both legs with Puskas before advancing in penalties. It is only a matter of time until Fiorentina gets themselves back on track, but they are still a very inconsistent team. Their ability to come away with a lot of draws will both help them and hurt them in this competition as well. One big advantage that they have is that they have been to the Final twice in the 3 seasons of this competition's existence, but they have lost in the Final both times, including last season. They know what they need to do to make a deep run and they have the quality to do so, but their inconsistencies will hurt them down the stretch. They also like to play with fire by relying on draws too much and it does not take much for an outcome to be flipped on its head in a penalty shootout. Their experience in the competition makes them a serious threat to go to the Final, but there are better squads in this tournament that could give them a lot of trouble in different rounds so there is no real value in Fiorentina to lift the trophy this season.
Istanbul Basaksehir +2500: Istanbul Basaksehir is not the next best team to win this competition according to the oddsmakers, but they are a club with some real value. After clubs from Serie A and the Premier League won the first 2 editions of this competition, the current champion is actually a club from Greece, Olympiacos, even beating out Aston Villa and Fiorentina on their run to lift the trophy. Istanbul Basaksehir is a club from Turkiye and it is not a far reach to see another club from a smaller league win the title this season. The Turkiye Super Lig is a very strong league with clubs like Galatasaray and Fenerbahce who make a splash in Europe every year, and Istanbul Basaksehir is already off to a strong start this season. They have built a very strong squad that can play with the best in this competition. They have a very potent attack that is averaging over 2 goals scored per match in their own domestic league and that also holds true in the 6 qualifying matches they had to play for this tournament. They won 5 of their 6 qualifying matches with no losses in that span and their defense has been just as good as their attack. They only allowed 1 goal in their 6 qualifying matches and they have had no trouble winning matches away from home as well. The Turkiye Super Lig is always going to be on their minds if they are in a position to win it, but recently it has been dominated by teams like Galatasaray and Fenerbahce so Istanbul Basaksehir is going to be focused on doing well here. They also missed out on European competition altogether last season so they are going to be more focused than ever being back in it, and they will not take any matches for granted. Istanbul Basaksehir has a lot of value at this price as they have a very good chance at making a deep run here and winning it all.
Recommendation
The Conference League has always been tough to predict as the winner of the competition might not even be in it from the start, but now with the new format, one of these clubs has to take home the trophy. Considering the strength of their squad and the depth they have, Chelsea at +175 really is the best option of all the big clubs in the competition so there is some value there. Istanbul Basaksehir at +2500 has a lot of value as a dark horse though since they play in a very tough league, making them battle tested for the stronger teams, and they have also rebuilt their squad better than ever with more motivation after missing out on Europe last season. Chelsea at +175 and Istanbul Basaksehir at +2500 to win the UEFA Conference League this season.