UFC 311 - Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2
Saturday, January 18th
Intuit Dome - Los Angeles, CA
The UFC returns to Los Angeles this Saturday. Maybe. (More on that below.) It's the first pay-per-view event of 2025 and it includes some of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the entire world. The Main Event features a rematch of Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan. The Co-Main Event sees Umar Nurmagomedov facing Merab Dvalishvili. Some other recognizable names include: Renato Moicano, Beneil Dariush, Jamahal Hill and Kevin Holland. Both the marquis fights have a clear favorite but there are some others which are expected to be more competitive. Let's get caught up to speed.
The Main Event
The lightweight title is on the line in the Main Event. The first fight between Islam Makhachev (26-1) and Armen Tsarukyan (22-3) was back in 2019 and it went the distance. At the time, Makhachev's decision victory was his fifth consecutive win. He's kept winning and getting better, ever since. He's now won 14 straight and is considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. For Saturday's rematch, Makhachev is a hefty -410 favorite. Tsarukyan is no slouch. He's 9-1 since the loss to Makhachev and he's a perfect 4-0 his past four fights.
Islam knows that Armen is a legitimate contender. The champion said this of the challenger: "Armen doesn't have any weaknesses. But if I want to see his weakness, I have to dig very deep. Arman has everything, that's why he is the real contender, number one in our division right now. I pushed myself very hard for the last three months for this fight because I know I have a real contender who wants to take my belt. I don't want to give him any chance."
Prediction: Makhachev is the best in the world but Tsarukyan has the skills to least make things interesting. No play for me. Islam will very likely win but I'm not laying -400. I'm just going to enjoy watching a world class fight.
The Co-Main Event
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is a -325 favorite over bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) in the second biggest bout on the card. Considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Dvalishvili has won 11 in a row. His most four recent victories coming against Sean O'Malley, Henry Cejudo, Peter Yan and Jose Aldo. Those are all well-known fighters. Yet, Dvalishvili is still a substantial underdog. The fact that Nurmagomedov is still such a heavy favorite of the champion of the division shows his level of dominance.
Perhaps some of the lack of respect for Dvalishvili stems from the fact that he doesn't typically finish opponents. His last 4 victories have all been by decision. As a matter of fact, 10 of his 11 wins, during his current undefeated streak, have come courtesy of the judges. Each of Nurmagomedov's last two fights have also gone the distance. Before that, he'd stopped four of his previous five opponents.
Dvalishvili said this of Nurmagomedov: "I'm just going to make him humble. I think Umar is spoiled little baby. He's been disrespectful. You can go on his Twitter, and you guys all see how he disrespected the champion, but I'm just going to prove it. I don't want to talk. I just want to do it, you know? January 18th, I'm just going to prove it. I'm working really hard, and you guys know every time I fight against top contenders, I make them look easy. So I think I will do the same again. I'm going to look for the finish, but I'm not saying nothing. All I want is to win, beat him because he is 18-0, which is undefeated. He was never defeated before. He is like amateur world champion, Russian champion, Dagestan champion, sambo champion. He's Khabib's cousin, and his brother Khabib never lost before. I will be the first who gives him loss."
Prediction: With the juice on the over 4.5 rounds currently at -275 or -280 and given Dvalishvili's history of decisions, this one has a strong likelihood of going to judges. As good as Nurmagomedov is, I can't help thinking that Dvalishvili has a real shot at backing up his words. He may not win but he's going to be in it until the end with a real shot. The takeback on Dvalishvili is +275. That's where the value lies, in my opinion.
The Toss-Up
The Reinier de Ridder (18-2) versus Kevin Holland (26-12) fight could go either way. At least, according to the odds. Reinier de Ridder is currently the slightest of favorites. He's laying -115. The two big 5-round fights may be likely to go the distance but this one probably will not. None of "The Dutch Knight's" last six fights have. He won 4 of those 6, each of the past 2. Off a loss, Holland has dropped 3 of his past 4 fights. The last 2 (1 W, 1 L) both ended in the first round.
De Ridder said this of Holland: “He’s very wild on the feet,” de Ridder said. “But I’m going to put a lot of pressure on him, hit him with some good shots, take him down, choke him out, hopefully.”
Prediction: This one could be over quickly. One of these guys is getting stopped. Go with the under.
Will The Event Remain In Los Angeles?
Dana White: "Well, if the fire gets bad, we're coming to Vegas ... we'll move it to Vegas if gets too bad. As of now, it's all a go. NBA is gonna go this week, we're gonna go."