Big Al

Reconsidering the Kansas City Royals' Playoff Prospects

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024
The Las Vegas Sportsbook installed the Kansas City Royals’ season over/under win total at 73.5. The Royals rewarded bettors who were confident enough in them to wager the over on Monday (8/26) when they beat Cleveland, 9-4. 

With their 75-62 record going into September, Kansas City is in second place in the American League Central, trailing the  Guardians by 2 1/2 games. If the playoffs were to start today, the  Royals would claim the second wildcard spot. Yet one of the benefits of playing in their division is that they get to play the dumpster fire that is they get to play the Chicago White Sox for thirteen games.  Manager Matt Qautraro’s team beat the CrySox in twelve of those thirteen games to take almost full advantage of that schedule. 

Unfortunately, Kansas City does not have the White Sox on their schedule for the rest of the season. They have a .547 winning percentage this season, yet take away their games against the White Sox, they are then only two games over .500 and post a .508 winning percentage. The White Sox caveat also affects their impressive +98 run differential this season which ranks second in the American League and is the fifth best in MLB. Yet +43 of that run differential comes in their thirteen games with the Chicago Southsiders. Their average margin of victory against the White Sox was +3.31 runs per game this year. Put another way, 43.9% of their run differential comes from their thirteen games with Chicago. 

The Royals have also played their best baseball when at home where they have a 41-28 record. Hitting is down this season with the MLB batting average at .244, the on-base percentage at .313, and the slugging percentage at .402. Kansas City has .270/.331/.445 hitting plays when playing at home at Kauffman Stadium. Yet on the road, the Royals' splits drop to  .242/.295/.399 which is below those MLB averages. The Royals have a 34-34 record when playing away from home. Take away their six games on the road at Guaranteed Rate Field against the White Sox, their record falls below .500 at 29-33.

They begin September on a four-game losing streak after losing on the road against Houston on Saturday, 5-2. They have lost the first three games of their four-game series against the Astros in Minute Maid Park by seven combined runs. They have not scored more than three games in those three games. 

Kansas City opens the new month with a difficult first eleven games. After completing their series with the Astros, they return home to host Cleveland and Minnesota in a pair of important AL Central series. They then go on the road for a three-game series in New York Yankees. That six-game road trip concludes with three games in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. They come back home for an easier six-game home stand against Detroit and San Francisco, which will complete their home schedule in the regular season. Their final six games are on the road against Washington and then Atlanta. 

Good luck - TDG.