Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/08/2024

Game Time: 5:08 pm ET, Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Venue:  Citi Field, Flushing, NY

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -115, Mets -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -115, Mets -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -115, Mets -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  95-67 (1st place, NL East)

New York Mets:  89-73 (3rd place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  4-6 last 10

New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 95-67 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Mets on Tuesday for the NLDS. The series is tied 1-1, the Phillies losing the series opener on Saturday and winning the 2nd game on Sunday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .750 OPS. Cristopher Sanchez was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 7 strikeouts on 9 hits through 5 innings played against the Washington Nationals.

The Mets are entering this series off a win and won their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a home record of 46-35. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Tuesday for the National League Division Series. The series is tied 1-1, the Mets won the 1st game of this series on Saturday and lost the 2nd game on Sunday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Luis Severino was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Sean Manaea is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team lost their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 4 Ks on 6 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies finished the regular season with a 95-67 record overall which won them the NL East, and they also had a 41-40 road record. Meanwhile, the Mets finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card, and they were also 46-35 in their home games this season. The Mets knocked the Brewers out of the playoffs by taking 2 of the 3 games in Milwaukee in the Wild Card Round. Now they are tied 1-1 in this series after 2 games in Philadelphia and they have a chance to not only take a series lead in this game, but also close out the series without going back to Philadelphia. Their offense has looked really good lately and it has been a big part of their success over the last week. They also have the more favorable pitching matchup here which is going to help them. They are going with Manaea in this one and he is 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He hasn't looked bad in his starts lately either. He already pitched in one of their playoff games against Milwaukee and it was the game they lost, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in that one. He didn't get much help from the Mets offense, but that will be a different story in this home game. Nola is on the mound for the Phillies and he is 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA. He has looked good in his starts this year, but he hasn't looked as good in his road starts. He hasn't looked that great lately either, giving up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him lately. He also hasn't pitched since the regular season so the layoff could affect him in a negative way and this isn't the offense to have a bad game against. The Mets have the edge at home with Manaea and their hot offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game. 

Phillies Mets Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 8, 2024 (5:08 pm ET start time) is Mets 5 Phillies 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 30-24 (-5.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 53-41 (-7.4 units) on the moneyline after a win. 37-39 (-11 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 9-4 OVER when the total is 7 or less. 31-22 OVER against division opponents. 35-17 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125.

New York Mets: 92-74 (+14.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 26-17 (+4.4 units) on the moneyline at home with a money line of -100 to -150. 68-51 (+15.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 11-6 OVER when playing with a day off. 30-22 OVER against division opponents. 25-18 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

Philadelphia Phillies:  A. Hays (LF) Questionable - Back. S. Turnbull (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

New York Mets:  C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (SP) Undefined - Forearm. J. McNeil (2B) Out - Wrist. S. Reid-Foley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Blackburn (RP) Undefined - Hand. K. Senga (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Mauricio (SS) Sixty Day IL - Knee.

“I said to the guys, Rocky would be proud. Never-die mentality. Just a great game.” - Bryce Harper after their win against the Mets in game 2 of this series on Sunday.

“No excuses. It’s been hard, but here we are. I’m just looking forward to get back to Citi Field.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Phillies in game 2 of this series on Sunday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Edmundo Sosa (R) 3B

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Mark Vientos (R) 3B

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jose Iglesias (R) 2B

J.D. Martinez (R) DH

Starling Marte (R) RF

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Harrison Bader (R) CF

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.295)

Hits:  Bryce Harper (157)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (38)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (104)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (32)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (16)

Saves:  José Alvarado (13)

ERA:  Matt Strahm (1.87)

Batting Average:  Jose Iglesias (.337)

Hits:  Francisco Lindor (169)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (34)

RBI:  Francisco Lindor (91)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (29)

Wins:  Sean Manaea (12)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (20)

ERA:  Brooks Raley (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (1st season)