Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, February 2nd, 2022 

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Dallas -12; O/U 206

BetMGM:  Spread:  Dallas -12.5; O/U 206

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Dallas -12; O/U 206

WynnBet: Spread:  Dallas -12; O/U 205.5

Thunder: 15-34, 14th place Western Conference

Mavericks: 29-22, 6th place Western Conference

There is a severe disparity in this Western Conference matchup.  One team wants to lose.  One team wants to win.  Both teams have expectations of accomplishing this task by who they choose to be on the roster in the first place.  The Oklahoma City Thunder is the team that wants to lose and they are accomplishing that despite the hustle of SG/SF Luguentz Dort.  They have traded away super stars over the last several seasons.  Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul… they all passed through this squad and they all delivered wins.  But a team that will spend the next century snakebit over being spurned by one-time MVP Kevin Durant, and league’s best pure scorer,  in free agency… won’t get fooled again.  They have amassed a treasure trove of future draft picks.  So many future picks that if they use them all they will not be able to keep any players from the current roster.  Not to mention that they start a lineup of  players almost entirely too young in the development process to win any games. At all.  The fact that they have 15 wins is because some of these kids are good enough to go off… some of these kids can hit a hot streak shooting… and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be on a much better team.  The Mavericks want to win.  They actually expect to win since they have one of the leagues top 3 or 4 players in PG Luka Doncic… and they paired him with C/PF Kristaps Porzingis who is also a top 20 (?) player…maybe better when healthy and rolling.  The expectation in Dallas is win and win now… That’s why they hired NBA legend and undercover super villain Jason Kidd to be their coach.  There should be no reason to bet on the Thunder in a matchup like this ever…. Except!... except!... Sportsbooks are pretty good at setting point spreads.  Let’s look at the numbers and see if Dallas can cover the points Vegas drops on them.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won just 2 of their last ten games.  Cruelly taking lottery ping pong balls away from their GM.  The two teams they beat are interesting:  The Portland Trail Blazers (expected) and the Brooklyn Nets (unexpected).  A disparity even if evin Durant and Kyrie Irving were not available to play.  That means that these scrubs beat James Harden.  I’m not surprised though… I’ve sung the praises of SF (playing out of position, he’s a SG) Luguentz Dort in these pages enough.  The guy plays with hustle and is fun to watch.  Mr Dort was an undrafted free agent…. And like Fred VanVleet and Robert Covington before him… he showed up in the league and proved he belonged right away.  The Thunder aren’t limited to just a display of hustle though… they also have the supremely skilled Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and SG Josh Giddey.  These guys can light it up if given the proper support.  From time to time the Thunder will beat someone like James Harden and a surrounding group of vets… because they get a chance to focus against a team that does anything but focus.  

The Dallas Mavericks have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They are on an upward trajectory finally.  This is a team with two dominant stars.. I’ve already mentioned them, but it’s the rest of the team you have to pay close attention to.  The rest of the team has no clear 3rd option.  The rest of the team is made up of high quality NBA role players.  There are 6 Golden State Warriors outside of Steph and Klay that could earn starting spots on the Dallas Mavericks.  There are a few Knicks that could take starting spots away from the “other guys”.  There has been a campaign to notice Dorian Finney-Smith… but he is no Michael Finley.  (if you get the reference). Therein lies the trap in this game… Kristaps Porzingis will miss this one with a right knee bone bruise.  The missing of one star still leaves Dallas with the advantage… particularly with Luka Doncic still on the floor.  It just doesn’t leave them with a clear advantage on what will be a big point spread.

Today, Big Al looks for a great day, and is back on the NBA hardwood with this NBA High Roller Winner out of a 57-34 ATS angle. Don't miss out on the roundball $$$$. Get on board right now! Go get it! Get Big Al’s picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Thunder are 15-34 on the season, but are 30-17-2 ATS.  They are a point spread covering champ at the moment.  They have logged 19 Overs, 29 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 6-18 in road games.

The Mavericks are 29-22 on the season, but are 26-25 ATS.  They have notched 17 Overs, 33 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 16-9 in home games.

The Thunder are 30th in scoring with a sad 100.7 ppg, 8th in rebounds with 45.8 per game, and 25th in AST/TO ratio 1.6.  They are awful shooters.  They are shooting 30th in FG%, 30th in 3PT%, and 19th in FT%.  They excel on defense for a losing team where they are ranked 12th while allowing 107.4 ppg from opponents.

The Mavericks are 25th in scoring with 106.1 per game, 23rd in rebounds with 43.9 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio 1.9. They are shooting 18th in FG%, 24th in 3PT%, and 17th in FT%.  On defense they shine!  They are 3rd on defense while allowing 103.4 ppg from opponents.

Our prediction for Wednesday, February 2nd is….  Mavericks 118 - Thunder 100

Easy win for the Mavericks.  The Thunder will be missing their leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  That alone will seriously hamper this team that has been built to lose to begin with.  The Thunder have been chugging along collecting wins ATS against better teams, but without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all numbers go out the window.  Remember a 12 point spread is a BIG spread!  In this case it is merited.

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Both games of this matchup in Dallas have gone Under the last 3 seasons.

OKC is 14-5 ATS versus good defensive teams this season.

OKC is 17-4 ATS versus poor offensive teams this season. 

Thunder: PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) Out ** PG Vit Krejci (ankle) Out

Mavericks: PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) Out ** Sterling Brown (foot) Out ** SG Tim Hardaway (foot) Out 

Thunder: SF Luguentz Dort, PF Aaron Wiggins, C Derrick Favors, SG Josh Giddey, PG Tre Mann 

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Thunder

Points: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 22.7

Assists: Josh Giddey 6.1

Rebounds: Josh Giddey 7.6

Steals: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 1.1

Blocks: Darius Bazley 1.2

Mavericks

Points: Luka Doncic 25.6

Assists: Luka Doncic 8.9

Rebounds: Luka Doncic 8.9

Steals: Luka Doncic 1.2

Blocks: Kristaps Porzingis 1.7

Thunder: Mark Daigneault

Mavericks: Jason Kidd