Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/09/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, January 9, 2025

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  ND -1.5, PSU +1.5; Over/Under:  45.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  ND -2, PSU +2; Over/Under:  46 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  ND -1.5, PSU +1.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  13-1 (0-0) (FBS Independent)

Penn State Nittany Lions:  13-2 (8-1) (2nd place, Big Ten)

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  won their last game at a neutral site against the Georgia Bulldogs 23-10.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  won their last game at a neutral site against the Boise State Broncos 31-14.

Notre Dame is entering this game with a 13-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 4-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Georgia 23-10. Riley Leonard was the starting QB and he completed 15/24 passes for 90 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Riley Leonard led the team in rushing yards with 80. Jordan Faison led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Xavier Watts led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jack Kiser, Junior Tuihalamaka, Donovan Hinish, and RJ Oben each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Penn State is entering this game with a 13-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Boise State 31-14. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 13/25 passes for 171 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kaytron Allen led the team in rushing yards with 134. Tyler Warren led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 2 TDs. Tony Rojas led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Amin Vanover, Jaylen Reed, and Dani Dennis-Sutton each led the defense in sacks with 1. Zion Tracy and Zakee Wheatley each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Penn State listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State has looked really good in their games this season with their 13-2 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. Their 2 losses this season were against Ohio State and Oregon, but they have looked good in the CFP with both of their wins coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has looked really good in their games this season with their 13-1 record overall. Their only loss this season was at home against Northern Illinois, but they have been rolling over their opponents since that loss. As good as they have looked this season, Notre Dame hasn't really had a tough schedule this year. They haven't had to face many strong teams and when they have, the games have been much closer. They were a lot better than Indiana in that first playoff game, but that was also at home. They are coming off a 23-10 win over Georgia in their last one, but they struggled to get out ahead in that game and Georgia definitely wasn't as strong as they have been in previous years with a backup QB too. Notre Dame really relied on their defense which is really good, but Penn State also has a really good defense that will keep this a tight game. Notre Dame can run the ball well, but they had no passing offense in that win and that could get them into trouble here with Penn State having the more balanced offense and the better QB to make plays with. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game. 

Notre Dame Penn State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, January 9, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Penn State 23 Notre Dame 16.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 26-11 ATS in all lined games. 8-1 ATS as a neutral field favorite. 14-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 13-2 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 24-16 OVER in all lined games. 11-5 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 11-5 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 1-5 ATS as an underdog. 3-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 0-3 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. 3-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. 4-1 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200  rushing yards/game or more. 10-5 1H OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  C. Flanagan (TE) Out - Foot. J. Love (RB) Questionable - Knee. R. Mills (DL) Out - Knee. B. Morrison (CB) Out - Hip. B. Traore (DL) Out - Knee. C. Tucker (CB) Out - Knee. G. Payne (RB) Out - Knee. C. Jagusah (OL) Out - Pectoral. T. Bennie-Powell (SAF) Out - Shoulder. S. Prescod (OL) Out - Shoulder.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  A. Carter (DE) Questionable - Arm. K. Winston (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Donkoh (OL) Out - Knee. K. Wylie (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Wallace (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. K. Saunders (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Rappleyea (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Denmark (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Artis (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Ford (DT) Out - Lower Body. Z. Fisher (DE) Out - Undisclosed.

“We spent some time together, and I think that’s what you do in tough moments. You want to spend time with family, and that’s what we are.” - Marcus Freeman after his team’s win against UGA in the Sugar Bowl.

“We played a complete game. Our offense, defense and special teams, we played complementary football, did some special things.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against BSU in the Fiesta Bowl.

WR Collins, Beaux 

WR Faison, Jordan 

WR Greathouse, Jaden

TE Evans, Mitchell 

QB Leonard, Riley 

RB Love, Jeremiyah 

WR Wallace III, Harrison 

WR Evans, Omari 

WR Clifford, Liam

TE Warren, Tyler 

QB Allar, Drew 

RB Singleton, Nicholas

Passing: R. Leonard (2383)

Rushing: J. Love (1076)

Receiving: B. Collins (458)

Touchdowns: J. Love (18)

Passing: D. Allar (3192)

Rushing: K. Allen (1026)

Receiving: T. Warren (1158)

Touchdowns: N. Singleton (14)

Coaches:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (4th season)

Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (11th season)