This upcoming week is the final slate of Preseason games before the real stuff starts in two weeks. There are two games tonight, on Thursday; three on Friday; eight on Saturday; and three on Sunday.
For our System of the Week, we're going to look at the Thursday night match-up between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Colts have been installed as a 6.5-point road favorite, primarily because the Bengals will be resting their starters for this game, while the Colts intend to play their starters into the 2nd quarter.
Last week, the Bengals were blown out, 27-3, by the Chicago Bears to fall to 0-2. Indianapolis is 1-1 after upsetting Arizona, 21-13, as a 2.5-point home underdog last Saturday.
Many bettors might shy away from a team which scored just 3 points in its previous game, especially when it has signaled it won't play its starters. But be careful. Consider that NFL Preseason teams have gone 43-27-2 ATS since 1983 when installed as an underdog of 3+ points, if they scored 3 or less in their previous game. And if our underdog was playing at home, then our 43-27-2 stat zooms to 8-3 ATS.
Take Cincinnati + the points.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie