BEARS - Caleb Williams Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The first overall draft pick from 2024 has been one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL this year, showing flashes of greatness while simultaneously making plenty of head scratching plays. He is fresh off one of his best games throwing for 340 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks in a tough divisional loss against the Vikings. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze still make up one of the best receiving corps in football and will be called upon again against the Lions number one ranked scoring offense. Williams threw the ball 47 times last week, and a negative game script is in store again on Turkey Day against Detroit who has won nine straight, six of them by at least 10 points. Detroit ranks 25th in passing yards allowed so all signs point to a nice statistical day for Williams.
COWBOYS - Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (Even)
Dowdle has taken over the Dallas backfield in recent weeks seeing almost 17 touches per game over the past four games. He only has one touchdown during that span but is due against the sorry looking Giants who gave up four rushing touchdowns against Tampa Bay, allowing each of their three running backs and Baker Mayfield to all punch one in. Dallas pulled off an improbable win against Washington last week, moving the ball very effectively with Rico as a featured piece. New York is giving up nearly 150 rushing yards per game and a running back seeing so much volume in a solid offense should have a great chance to find the end zone against them.
DOLPHINS - Tyreek Hill Over 63.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Miami is finally looking like the Dolphins of last year scoring 34 points each of the past two games. It was a Jaylen Waddle game last week and oddly enough Jonnu Smith has out produced Tyreek Hill in recent weeks as well. Still, the offense is starting to flow again and Hill remains a nightmare for opposing coordinators. With Tua back in the groove, it does not take much for Tyreek to get loose. Despite his wrist injury, Tua still loves to target Hill (14 targets the last 2 weeks) so we expect him to get his chances. Miami badly needs a win to stay in playoff contention and Hill has been patient with the rocky season his team and Quarterback have had. Expect Tyreek to hit some big plays at Lambeau to cap off the Holiday.