NFL Divisional Round

The NFL’s 2024 postseason field has been winnowed by nearly half following the conclusion of a highly unsatisfying wild-card round – five of the six contests decided by at least a 12-point margin. The wild card round of the NFL playoffs may not have quite lived up to its name—in every matchup save for the Washington Commanders–Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, the higher-seeded team ousted the lower-seeded team, typically by a large margin.

But the divisional round could deliver some compelling football. Hopefully the quality of the games improves in the divisional round, which often unfolds as the most entertaining cluster of matchups on the NFL calendar. At minimum, it will feature what are theoretically the league’s two best teams, the Chiefs and Lions both returning to action following their hard-earned bye weeks. Sunday evening will showcase Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, arguably the league’s two best players and the presumptive MVP finalists.

The Kansas City Chiefs are big winners from Round 1, as the Ravens and Bills will meet in Round 2. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will host the Texans, who they just beat a few weeks ago. Houston’s defense has been excellent this season, but its lackluster offense will be a real issue on the road. The Chiefs have a very favorable road to get back to the Super Bowl again this year. There’s suddenly a Golden Raye of hope here. Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Co. have basically had the luxury of working unfettered in the playoff laboratory since Christmas. The team’s core players are refreshed (older ones like TE Travis Kelce and DT Chris Jones needed to be) as the elimination phase of their unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat bid arrives. And, some due respect to the Texans – they’ve lost four straight to the Chiefs since last beating them in 2019 – but K.C. is 6-0 in the divisional round since Mahomes was promoted to QB1 in 2018. That aside, despite unfailingly being in playoff mode when required, Reid’s team also raises the intensity level multiple levels in January. 

Next Game: Saturday, Jan. 18 vs. Texans

The Detroit Lions were expecting to play the Vikings in Round 2, but they will face Jayden Daniels and the Commanders instead. The Lions are massive favorites and have to be thrilled with how the bracket turned out for them as the No. 1 seed. Given how hard they always play – even when nothing is explicitly at stake, which was the case in their Week 17 game at San Francisco – the week off had to be a huge benefit for a team that needed to chill and whet its appetite for more kneecaps. The down time also apparently means RB David Montgomery (knee) will rejoin an offense already oversaturated with ability, options and schematic variance. One X-factor will be the ability of an undermanned defense to handle Daniels, one of the few multi-dimensional quarterbacks Detroit has faced this season … and remember what Allen did to the Lions in Buffalo’s 48-42 win at Detroit last month.

Next Game: Saturday, Jan. 18 vs. Commanders

The Philadelphia Eagles might be the most talented team in the league, and we saw that play out on Sunday. Jalen Hurts did not play well, yet the Eagles still managed to beat the Packers by double-digits. Philadelphia’s defense has been outstanding during the last two months and could be the reason it makes it back to the Super Bowl this year. Their wild-card win wasn’t exactly akin to a preseason affair. But the Philly offense looked rusty – the Eagles sat key starters in Week 18, and QB Jalen Hurts was playing for the first time since suffering a concussion three weeks previously – which wasn’t really that big a deal given all the mistakes the Green Bay Packers made and the body count claimed by a voracious injury bug. The Eagles defense was dialed in Sunday, and it seems likely Hurts and Co. will be, too, given the team-wide acknowledgement that they didn’t live up to their capabilities.

Next Game: Sunday, Jan. 19 vs. Rams

Bo Nix and the Broncos scored a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, but the Buffalo Bills proceeded to score 31 unanswered points in a blowout victory. Buffalo’s offensive line was dominant on Sunday, and its run game has allowed them to really control the clock in big-time contests. That’ll need to happen again next Sunday when the Bills host the Ravens in Round 2. The Ravens are a serious obstacle in their path to Super Bowl 59. The Bills are 9-0 at Highmark Stadium, but they’ve also been getting off to slow starts for the past month – averaging fewer than 10 first-half points in their past four games. No matter how good Allen is and has been, that could be lethal against a Baltimore squad that’s been scoring just about at will over that same stretch.

Next Game: Sunday, Jan. 19 vs. Ravens

The Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford duo strikes again. They clearly weren't worried about being the No. 4 seed after sitting everyone in Week 18. But the bigger story is the defense, which caused Sam Darnold to panic all game long. The Los Angeles Rams will go to Philadelphia in Round 2, and that's a very tough matchup for them. But with McVay and Stafford, you never know and they do have that awesome defensive line. The offense was efficient in Monday night’s victory over the 14-win Minnesota Vikings. But a youthful defense was truly exceptional (9 sacks, 2 takeaways – one returned for a TD). It will have to show up again in Lincoln Financial Field's far more hostile and frosty environs for the Rams to advance past the Eagles. It’s also worth wondering how long a team that’s been at least fueled in part by playing for its wildfire-ravaged city and been the recipient of the goodwill of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals can maintain its focus and motivation given the ongoing distractions in the everyday lives of the players, coaches and staff.

Next Game: Sunday, Jan. 19 vs. Eagles

6. BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-5) 

Lamar Jackson has had some postseason struggles in the past, but not this week. Despite not having their No. 1 receiver, the Baltimore Ravens put up 28 points against the Steelers and rushed for 300 yards. Jackson played a fantastic game, and the offense was in complete control. He’s never played better, and this feels like their best chance to reach a Super Bowl since he was drafted in 2018. The Bills are a serious obstacle in their path to Super Bowl 59. The Ravens have averaged 32.6 points in the five games since their Week 14 bye, though the 28 Baltimore posted in Saturday’s wild-card win against Pittsburgh was the fewest during that period. Yet if the defense continues to allow just 11.4 points on a weekly basis, scoring 28 will be more than sufficient. Bad Buffalo weather could be an equalizer, QB Lamar Jackson engineering three points in his only other postseason appearance in Western New York four years ago, when freezing temperatures and gusty winds neutralized the Ravens offense.

Next Game: Sunday, Jan. 19 vs. Bills

Is there anything that Jayden Daniels can’t do? Rookie quarterbacks don’t win on the road in the playoffs, but Daniels isn’t an ordinary rookie. He is a special talent, and he has the Washington Commanders in Round 2 of the playoffs already. Even if they aren’t able to pull off the upset in Detroit, this has been a magical season for Daniles and the Commanders, and the vibes in Washington couldn’t be better. We noted last week that no rookie quarterback has ever taken his team to the Super Bowl, and Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos were already making tee times and resort reservations. But Jayden Daniels continues to perform beyond his years, the presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year coolly leading Washington to its first postseason win in nearly two decades. Yet it’s still worth wondering if he has enough help on either side of the ball to keep pace with the hungry Lions in their den, where they’ve scored 40+ points four times and exceeded 30 two other times at Ford Field this season. What happened to defense matters in the playoffs?

Maybe the most shocking result of the weekend was the Houston Texans taking care of business against the Chargers. Los Angeles was favored going into the game, but Houston was outstanding on defense. It made Justin Herbert look very average, and the offense did enough to close out the game.There are still some major concerns on that side of the ball, but this is the second consecutive season in which DeMeco Ryans has won at least one playoff game. Kudos to the Texans for finding a way to win despite a rocky end to their regular season. A team that so frequently played to its level of competition this season – and sometimes decidedly failed to manage that – more than met the moment Saturday against the 

Chargers as the rest of the playoff teams cry that they need one more game like that one this weekend. But now the Texans not only have to overcome the rested, top-seeded Chiefs at Arrowhead, they have to overcome their own underwhelming playoff history. Houston is 0-5 all time in the divisional round (the losses by an average of 16.4 points) and 0-5 on the road in postseason.

Next Game: Saturday, Jan. 18 vs. Chiefs