New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/05/2024

Game Time: 4:08 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +160, Phillies -192; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +155, Phillies -185; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +155, Phillies -190; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

New York Mets:  89-73 (3rd place, NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  95-67 (1st place, NL East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Kyle Hunter is on a HOT STREAK in the MLB on a 9-2 MLB RUN for +$6,730 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  4-6 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a win and won their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 43-38. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Saturday for the National League Division Series. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. José Quintana was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 9 Ks on 2 hits through 5.1 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 95-67 record overall and had a home record of 54-27. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Mets on Saturday for the NLDS. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .750 OPS. Aaron Nola was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 11 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6.1 innings played against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies finished the regular season with a 95-67 record overall which won them the NL East, and they also had a 54-27 home record. Meanwhile, the Mets finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card, and they were also 43-38 in their road games this season. The Mets knocked the Brewers out of the playoffs by taking 2 of the 3 games in Milwaukee in the Wild Card Round. They did have a close call though, down 2-0 going into the 9th inning in the final game, and ended up scoring 4 runs in that inning to win and move on. Their offense has looked great all year, but their pitching has been a big problem. That isn't going to be good in this series since the Phillies have been pitching a lot better this season and also have one of the best offenses in the MLB themselves. They are going to have their ace on the mound too, Zack Wheeler, and he is 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA. He gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. His team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting, but he is due for a bounce back win at home. The Mets are going with Senga in this one and he is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA, but he has also missed a lot of the season with an injury. He only made 1 start all season and this is also just his 2nd season being in the MLB. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his only start against the Braves, but this is a much stronger offense to go against and this isn't a good game for him to ease back into a starting role off an injury. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game and on the runline.

Mets Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (4:08 pm ET start time) is Phillies 4 Mets 1.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks, best bets, and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews.

New York Mets: 91-73 (+13.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 45-39 (+10 units) on the moneyline in road games. 13-5 (+12.9 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 27-16 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 14-4 OVER as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 

Philadelphia Phillies: 29-23 (-5.3 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 53-40 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline after a win. 36-38 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-4 OVER when the total is 7 or less. 29-22 OVER against division opponents.

New York Mets:  C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (SP) Undefined - Forearm. J. McNeil (2B) Out - Wrist. S. Reid-Foley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Blackburn (RP) Undefined - Hand. K. Senga (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Mauricio (SS) Sixty Day IL - Knee.

Philadelphia Phillies:  A. Hays (LF) Questionable - Back. S. Turnbull (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

“This has been unreal. What a ride. I’m just excited to help keep this team alive.” - Pete Alonso after their win against the Brewers in game 3 of their Wild Card Series on Thursday.

“I was really happy with the way we finished.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Nationals in their season finale on Sunday.

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Mark Vientos (R) 3B

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jose Iglesias (R) 2B

Jesse Winker (L) DH

Starling Marte (R) RF

Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Alec Bohm (R) 1B

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Kody Clemens (L) LF

Edmundo Sosa (R) 3B

Garrett Stubbs (L) C

Batting Average:  Jose Iglesias (.337)

Hits:  Francisco Lindor (169)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (34)

RBI:  Francisco Lindor (91)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (29)

Wins:  Sean Manaea (12)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (20)

ERA:  Brooks Raley (0.00)

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.295)

Hits:  Bryce Harper (157)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (38)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (104)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (32)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (16)

Saves:  José Alvarado (13)

ERA:  Matt Strahm (1.87)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)