Big Al

NCAA Football: Louisville Cardinals vs. Ole Miss Rebels Preview, Prediction & Odds - Sept. 6, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, Sep 01, 2021
Game time: 8 p.m. ET; Sept. 6, 2021
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Ole Miss -10; O/U 76; ML: Ole Miss -400, Louisville +300
BetMGM: Ole Miss -10.5; O/U 75.5; ML: Ole Miss -385, Louisville +295
Caesars: Ole Miss -10; O/U 75.5; ML: Ole Miss -400, Louisville +310

2020 season record
Louisville: 4-7
Ole Miss: 5-4 (won Outback Bowl vs. Indiana)

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Louisville - Ole Miss preview and analysis


Is it wrong to think Lane Kiffin just does not go away? Just when you think you can get rid of him, he comes back with more offensive firepower than you ever imagined.

I mean, the man returns to coaching FAU of all programs, turns them into a two-time bowl winner at something called the Boca Raton Bowl, comes to Ole Miss and already wins a bowl game. Keep in mind this is the same man that coached the No. 1 team in the country in 2012, and that same team finished 7-6.

But he had a receiver (Marqise Lee) go for nearly 1,800 yards and make Matt Barkley look like the second coming of Carson Palmer. About that.

But Kiffin is now with the Ole Miss Rebels, and Year 2 of his run as head coach will begin on Monday night when the Rebels face the Louisville Cardinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

One thing we learned early on about this Ole Miss team: They’re going to score a lot of points, and will be fun to watch. Nothing may beat the Laquan Treadwell days, but this group will put up points in a heartbeat. The Rebels scored 39.2 points per game last season; they put up 54 and 59 in consecutive weeks, they put up 48 against Alabama (despite a loss), and 48 at LSU (despite a loss).

I say despite a loss because Ole Miss could not stop offenses to save its life. Somehow, Ole Miss was plucked from the Big 12 to the SEC and was told, ‘you shall not pass.’ They gave up a lot of passes, averaging 38.3 points allowed per football contest in the year of our lord 2020.

If you have the option of taking the over in every game with the Rebels, you might want to consider it. Matt Corral, who was third in the SEC in passing yards (3,337) and touchdown passes (29) last season, returns to lead this high-octane offense. He has the potential to be similar to what Mac Jones and Kyle Trask did last season. That is, if this passing game picks up where it left off last season.

And such things will be daunting for the Rebels given last year’s top targets -- wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah -- are now playing on Sundays. Corral made Moore a second-round pick by the New York Jets, so he must be doing something right.

Dontario Drummond returns as Ole Miss’ top target; he had 417 yards and a whopping seven touchdowns on only 25 catches. He’s very much someone that can be a reliable target for the Ole Miss quarterback.

Louisville had a down year under second-year coach Scott Satterfield in 2020, going 4-7 and missing on a bowl game for only the second time since 2009. But one look at the results, and things could’ve swung greatly had the Cardinals finished the job; 3-point loss to Pitt, 5-point loss to No. 4 Notre Dame, 7-point loss to Virginia Tech, 7-point loss to Boston College.

Man, that Notre Dame result would’ve been fun to analyze.

Such tough outings aren’t anything new to Satterfield, the former coach at Appalachian State that turned that program from D-2 powerhouse to perennial top-25 team.

Louisville will have quarterback Malik Cunningham back after he had over 3,200 total yards last season. The offense was not lacking; they held a 75-yard advantage at the end of the season over their opponents.

Cunningham will have a new offense around him, however. Dez Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell are also in the NFL; last year’s leading rusher Javian Hawkins is also pro. Louisville’s defense also lost five of their seven top tacklers.

Prediction


This is going to be a fun game, and the fact it’s the lone game on Monday night, one week before the NFL returns, is a great boost for ESPN and those who love college football. Ole Miss should have the crowd advantage in Atlanta, and expect another big leap from Corral in what will be a great tune-up for what’s set to be a tough SEC slate. Ole Miss wins 49-45.

Betting trends


Satterfield is 9-14-3 as an underdog dating back to Appalachian State, but he’s 3-0 against the spread in season openers.

Louisville is 12-12 straight up in its last 24 games. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six non-conference games against the spread.

Statistical leaders from 2020


Louisville:
Passing: Malik Cunningham -- 2,617 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT
Rushing: Javian Hawkins -- 822 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Dez Fitzpatrick -- 833 yards, 3 TD
Defense: C.J. Avery -- 79 tackles, 2 sacks

Ole Miss:
Passing: Matt Corral -- 3,337 yards, 29 TD, 14 INT
Rushing: Jerrion Ealy -- 745 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Elijah Moore -- 1,193 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Jacquez Jones -- 75 tackles

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