Christmas Day is the NBA's signature television event (apart from the Playoffs), and features match-ups between the league's elite and/or popular teams. This season, we will be treated to five games (all odds courtesy of BetAnySports):
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks (Knicks -8.5, 222.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (Mavericks -5.5, 221.5)
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (Celtics -8.5, 221)
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Warriors -4.5, 221.5)
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (Nuggets -2.5, 232.5)
Let's take a look at the data for Christmas Day games, dating back to December 25, 1990.
Home teams: 61-53-1 ATS
Away teams: 53-61-1 ATS
Favorites: 60-53-1 ATS
Underdogs: 53-60-1 ATS
Double-digit Faves: 4-5 ATS
Double-digit Dogs: 5-4 ATS
Revenge-minded Teams: 20-24 ATS
Overs: 53-58-4
Unders: 58-53-4
Teams off Win (vs. Foes off Loss): 22-30-1 ATS
Teams off Loss (vs. Foes off Win): 30-22-1 ATS
Teams off ATS Win (vs. Foes not off ATS Win): 29-36-1 ATS
Teams off ATS Loss (vs. Foes not off ATS Loss: 36-28-1 ATS
Teams off Upset Win (vs. Foes not off Upset Win): 8-10 ATS
Teams off Upset Loss (vs. Foes not off Upset Loss): 25-17-1 ATS
Teams off Back-to-Back Wins (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Wins): 23-29-1 ATS
Teams off Back to Back Losses (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Losses): 16-14 ATS
From this data, we can see that there might be an edge in playing teams off losses against foes off wins. Since 1990, those teams have gone 30-22-1 ATS. This year, there are four teams that fit the bill: Spurs +8.5, Timberwolves +5.5, Celtics -8.5, and Suns +2.5). Notably, home teams have done much better than road teams in this set of 53 games. Home teams have gone 16-9 ATS, while road teams are just 14-13-1. The home teams off a loss this season that are playing a road team off a win are: Celtics -8.5 and Suns +2.5. And if we break our 16-9 ATS set down further to Home Dogs and Home Favorites, we find they both have been profitable. Home Dogs on Christmas Day off a loss have gone 6-4 ATS vs. foes off a win, while Home Favorites off a loss have gone 9-5 ATS vs. foes off a win (and Home PK'em teams have gone 1-0 ATS).
Consider taking the Celtics and Suns on this Christmas Day.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie