A look at five NBA teams that have a good shot at hitting the Over (posted win totals in parenthesis):
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (21.5) – Books like the Blazers as the worst team in the league in Year 2 post-Lillard, but the roster just seems capable of finishing with close to 28-30 wins rather than the low 20s. Much depends on whether the Blazers can actually convince Deandre Ayton to be the player the Suns were convinced he could never be. If he shows like he’s ready to go full bore, Portland might trade backup Robert Williams. The backcourt Portland envisioned (Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson) never got rolling last season as Simons battled injuries. A motivated Ayton, a healthy backcourt, and a solid season from forward Jeremi Grant would add up to more than 21 wins.
DETROIT PISTONS (24.5) – Shame that one of the Association’s flagship franchises has fallen so far, but the madness in Motor City might be coming to an end. No one figures the Pistons to lose 28 straight games again, and things would have to go completely south to end the year 2-15 again. There are lots of changes, primarily at the top where Monty Williams is out as HC and J.B. Bickerstaff is in. Bickerstaff will still have a young core, but the team did bring in some veterans -- notably Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. -- who should help prevent long-losing streaks. The keys to the car still will be in the hands of Cade Cunningham, who signed a max deal off his rookie contract. If he improves, and he should, so will the Pistons.
UTAH JAZZ (29.5) – Will the Jazz (31-51) backslide for the second straight season? Not likely, but the best Utah fans can probably hope for is a shot at the Play-In Tournament. Things kind of begin and end with PF Lauri Markkanen, who has signed long-term with the Jazz. The backcourt – Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson – are decent and go off every now and then. Utah also likes its top two draft picks – forward Cody Williams and center and Kyle Filipowski. But whether the Jazz are able to reverse the trend and move forward will depend a lot of improvement from one of two of their three 2023 first-round draft picks – Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, and Brice Sensabaugh.
MIAMI HEAT (44.5) – Looks like Pat Riley has had it with Jimmy Butler, who sat out the Celtics playoff series and then said the Heat would have won if he had NOT sat out. If Butler wants to stay in Miami, he has to A. Play, B. Play well and C. Play a lot. No more holding back, if he wants another contract and hang in South Beach beyond next summer. In fact, this might be the end of the relax-in-the-regular-season-and-go-at-it-when-the-playoffs mode in Miami. Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are all back, and a quick playoff exit (or no playoffs at all) will probably mean the end of the line for those three as a group.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers (52.5) – Yes, that number is kind of high. But the talent is firmly in place in Philly, and there doesn’t seem to be a Plan B beyond stockpiling good players and hoping for the best. That might just work, with Joel Embiid joined by Paul George and Tyrese Maxey in what looks like a very solid Big Three. Much of the early part of the season will be devoted to Nick Nurse figuring out how to blend in a group of four veteran additions – Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, and Andre Drummond. Drummond’s presence will be of particular importance if Embiid shows up overweight with the intention of playing himself into shape.