Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/21/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Venue:  Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Knoxville, TN

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +6.5, Tennessee -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +6.5, Tennessee -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +6.5, Tennessee -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  15-3 (3-2) (7th place, SEC)

Tennessee Volunteers:  16-2 (3-2) (6th place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-2  last 5

Tennessee Volunteers:  3-2  last 5

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 15-3 record overall, a 3-2 record in conference games, and they are 3-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Ole Miss Rebels in their last game. Riley Kugel led the team in points per game in that game with 21 while KeShawn Murphy was next on the team with 18. Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy each led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy each led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 44.6% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 60.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.1 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 9-9 this season and their O/U record is 10-8.

Tennessee is entering this game with a 16-2 record overall, a 3-2 conference record, and they are 10-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Vanderbilt Commodores in their last game. Chaz Lanier led the team in points in that game with 17 while Zakai Zeigler, Felix Okpara, and Igor Miličić Jr. each were next on the team with 16. Zakai Zeigler led the team in assists with 10 in that game while Igor Miličić Jr. and Jahmai Mashack each led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 48% from the field, 47.6% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 76.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 58.8 PPG against them. Tennessee has an ATS record of 11-7 this season and their O/U record is 7-11.

The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked really good in their games this season with their 16-2 record overall and their 3-2 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC. Their only 2 losses this season were both in the conference, but they are still ranked like one of the best teams in the nation with the talent that they have. They have also looked great on their home court with their 10-0 home record. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked really good in their games this season with their 15-3 record overall and their 3-2 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC and ranked inside the top 25. They have been a good road team so far with their 3-1 road record too. They haven't looked great lately though, struggling more in conference play as their opponents have been getting tougher. They have 2 losses in their last 3 games as they weren't able to hang with Auburn or Kentucky. They are coming off a big win over Ole Miss in their last one, but they only won that game at home by 3 points and they could be looking at a let down game after such a big win over their rival. On the other hand, Tennessee is a lot more talented than Mississippi State is and Tennessee is coming off a tight loss in their last one. Tennessee lost on the road to their rival Vanderbilt by 1 point so they are going to be looking to bounce back in a big way now that they are back at home where they have looked a lot better all season, and they are still one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Tennessee Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, January 21, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Tennessee 76 MS State 65.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 4-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick. 22-34 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less. 11-17 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 5-1 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 34-22 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins. 

Tennessee Volunteers: 28-14 ATS as a home favorite or pick. 16-9 ATS after playing a road game. 15-7 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 21-14 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 14-7 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 28-16 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  R. Kugel (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

Tennessee Volunteers:  J. Estrella (F) Out - Foot.

“I didn't tell the team that this was a must-win for this team, but it certainly was for me internally just for a lot of factors. I don't know if we had a bigger must-win than today going into the game, in my opinion.” - Chris Jans after his team’s win against Mississippi in their last game. 

“Too competitive. Thinking they’re going to block a shot or stop everybody. Thinking we’re literally going to keep people from getting a shot off, and you can’t. You absolutely can’t foul a 3-point shooter.” - Rick Barnes after his team’s loss against Vandy in their last game. 

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

C. Lanier 

J. Mashack 

I. Milicic 

F. Okpara 

Z. Zeigler

PPG: J. Hubbard (16.6)

APG: C. Matthews (3.8)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.7)

PPG: C. Lanier (18.1)

APG: Z. Zeigler (7.7)

Reb/G: I. Milicic (8.4)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)

Tennessee Volunteers: Rick Barnes (10th season)