Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/18/2024

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  BSGL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -102, Guardians -118; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Minnesota Twins:  79-71 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  87-64 (1st place, AL Central)

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Minnesota Twins:  3-7 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  6-4 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 79-71 record overall and have a road record of 37-38. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Guardians on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Twins lost the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .739 OPS. Rookie pitcher Zebby Matthews is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Bailey Ober is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 6 hits through 6.2 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 87-64 record overall and have a home record of 46-27. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Twins on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Guardians won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Gavin Williams is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Tanner Bibee is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 9 strikeouts on 8 hits through 6 innings played against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked great in their games this season with their 87-64 record overall which has them leading the AL Central. They have also looked great in their home games this season with their 46-27 home record. Meanwhile, the Twins have looked good in their games this season with their 79-71 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place of the AL Central and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They haven't looked good in their road games either, going 37-38 in their road games this year, and they haven't looked good in their games lately. They are only 3-7 in their last 10 games and have been slipping down the standings with the Royals now ahead of them. The Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they have the better pitching matchup here with Bibee on the mound. Bibee is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA and he has been really reliable all season. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting, but he is due for a bounce back performance at home considering how consistent he has been all season. The Twins are going with Ober in this one and he is 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA this season. Ober has also been really reliable for the Twins this season, but lately he has been falling apart, giving up more runs in his starts. His team has also lost 2 games in a row with him starting, but he gave up 5 earned runs in his last start and that has become a common theme for him lately. The Twins need this series to stay in the Wild Card race, but the Guardians are looking to lock down the division while also hurting the chances of a fellow division rival. The Guardians have been so good at home all season and they have the better pitching matchup here along with the stronger bullpen. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Twins Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, September 18, 2024 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Guardians 4 Twins 1.

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Minnesota Twins: 14-11 (+3.15 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 25 road games. 8-5 (+2.70 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 13 road games. 14-6 to the first 5 under in their last 20 road games. 

Cleveland Guardians: 0-16 (-28 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 16 games. 0-16 (-19.52 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 16 games. 36-24 to the under in their last 60 games. 

Minnesota Twins:  K. Funderburk (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. M. Kepler (RF) Ten Day IL - Knee. C. Paddack (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Stewart (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Correa (SS) Ten Day IL - Heel. J. Topa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. D. Duarte (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. DeSclafani (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  S. Kwan (LF) Questionable - Fatigue. A. Cobb (SP) Undefined - Finger. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Carrasco (SP) Undefined - Hip. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point we got to take it one game at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow. We still have a shot. Everyone's aware of the standings. There's a scoreboard wherever you go.” - Pablo Lopez after their loss against the Guardians in their game on Monday.

“I'm so happy for him. Everyone who grows up wanting to play baseball has dreamed of that moment happening. The smile on his face looking back at our dugout, that was incredible.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s win against the Twins in their game on Monday.

Byron Buxton (R) CF

Matt Wallner (L) RF

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Royce Lewis (R) 3B

Trevor Larnach (L) DH

Willi Castro (S) LF

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Brooks Lee (S) SS

Edouard Julien (L) 2B

Angel Martínez (S) LF

Andrés Giménez (L) 2B

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Kyle Manzardo (L) DH

Will Brennan (L) RF

Bo Naylor (L) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Michael Helman (.375)

Hits:  Willi Castro (129)

Home Runs:  Carlos Santana (22)

RBI:  Carlos Santana (65)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (13)

Wins:  Pablo López (15)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (23)

ERA:  Scott Blewett (1.23)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.291)

Hits:  José Ramírez (159)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (35)

RBI:  José Ramírez (107)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (39)

Wins:  Ben Lively (12)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (46)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (6th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)