Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, April 16th, 2022 

Venue:   FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

Where to Watch: ESPN 

DraftKings:  Spread: Grizzlies -6.5; O/U 235

Fanduel:  Spread:  Grizzlies -6.5; O/U 236

BetMGM:  Spread: Grizzlies -6.5; O/U 235.5

Timberwolves: 46-36, 7th place Western Conference

Grizzlies: 56-26, 2nd place Western Conference

The NBA Playoffs are here!  A Western Conference matchup that is insanely deceiving… insanely nuanced… maybe just insane!  The Memphis Grizzlies are the second best team in the NBA overall at the season’s finish line.  They have a great leader and potential future MVP in PG Ja Morant.. And when Ja went down for the last 18 games of the season… The Grizzlies kept on winning!  They are deep, they are talented, they will have their star PG back on the court.  They are the 2 Seed in the Western Conference and they should not have to worry about the 7 Seed… except they do and they will (have to worry).  The Minnesota Timberwolves have been awful for a decade.  They have made trades, they have drafted at the top of the heap a few times.  They have an All-star Center!  It wasn’t until halfway through this season that something changed.  A switch was flipped.  The Timberwolves star C Karl-Anthony Towns started meshing with prized young, #1 overall pick in 2020 draft SF Anthony Edwards.  The duo started to light up the league to the point that they landed the #1 overall offense (based on scoring).  That duo has help though in the form of PG De’Angelo Russell and PG Patrick Beverley… who are a literal Thunder and Lightning combination. Russell can go off for big scoring games at a moment's notice… while Patrick Beverley plays an emotional otherworldly defensive game.  Recently discovered by the outside world is the positive value of PF Jarred Vanderbilt, PF Jaden McDaniels and backup Center Naz Reid… all of whom filled in perfectly for a Play-In game comeback win against the Los Angeles Clippers after Karl-Anthony fouled out of the game…. But seriously why should the Grizzlies care?... Because out of all the winning teams in the NBA over the last 3 seasons… The T-Wolves seemingly matchup better at every position, including bench spots.  Where the Grizz are strong so are the Wolves… where the Grizz are young and athletic… so are the Grizzlies.  This outcome based on these stats and betting trends (listed below) is actually a series of Pick-em games.  So let's pick correctly and make some $$$.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 5 of their last ten games, including the Play-In game.  They went 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  In the last game, the play in, the T-Wolves beat the Clippers 109-104.  The T-Wolves withstood 34 points form Paul George and hit the Clippers back with 30 pts form Anthony Edwards and 29 Pts from De’Angelo Russell… as mentioned earlier PG OPatrick Beverley only had 7 points, but made every defensive stop and hustle play you could imagine during a 4th quarter that saw the T-WOLVES outscore the Clippers 31-20 to win by 5!  The T-Wolves danced, hopped on tables, high fived, hugged, threw jerseys into the stands… and that is their one remaining WEAKNESS.  They already celebrated a single win in a non-elimination game.  They may feel emotionally spent after that failure to “act like you’ve been there before”.  However they will still be the toughest first round out.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 7 of their last ten games… and only lost three because they began to sit guys more in preparation for the guaranteed 2 SEED in the playoffs.  They went 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  PG Ja Morant missed all ten games (and several before) of the stretch and the team honestly relied on SG Desmond Bane to simply be a new star.  Desmond is… he does everything well.  Another great development of Ja’s absence was moving former talented SG Dillon Brooks to the SF spot.  Dillon has flourished (he missed a long stretch of games with injury… and will never get the SG spot back from Dillon) PF Jared Jackson Jr was widely assumed to be the Grizzlies 2nd best player… it is obvious that he is really the 3rd besat behind Bane… but that makes him even more valuable!  If your third best player averages 16.3 ppg, 5.8 rog, 1.1 apg, and a powerful 2.3 bpg… you have a very special team!  The Grizzlies were built to beat everybody and anybody and were expecting to only worry about the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Finals.  My assertion is that getting past the T-Wolves will be Memphis’s hardest struggle.

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Minnesota is 47-36 on the season, but 42-38-2 ATS.  They have logged 50 Overs and 32 Unders.  They are 20-21 in road games.

Memphis is 56-26 on the season, but 52-29-1 ATS.  They have notched 43 Overs, 38 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 30-11 in home games.

The Timberwolves are 1st in scoring with 115.9 ppg, 16th in rebounds with 44.2 per game, and 14th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 24th while allowing 113.3 ppg from opponents. 

The Grizzlies are 2nd in the league in scoring with 115.6 ppg, 1st in rebounds with 49.2 per game, and 5th in AST/TO ratio with 2.0.  On defense they rank 12th while holding opponents to 109.9 ppg.

Our prediction for Saturday, April 16th is…..  Grizzlies 122 - T-Wolves 111

The Grizzlies will take this one easy… It’s game two you have to watch for the upset.  The Wolves played great against the Clippers and recent history has shown they play great against the Grizzlies…. BUT the Grizz will be on the road.  They will be playing an equal offense with a much better defense.  Karl-Anthony Towns will be trying to insert himself after having the worst game of his season last time… that will take shots and possessions away from Edwards and Russell.

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Memphis is 5-0 ATS versus Minnesota at Memphis the last 3 seasons.

Memphis is 8-2 ATS versus Minnesota over the last 3 seasons.

6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER the last 3 seasons.

T-Wolves: SF Taureen Prince (knee) Quest ** 

Grizz: PF Killian Tillie (knee) Out **

Neither of these players has much impact.  Technically Ja is listed as Questionable because that is how every injured player is listed before his first game back.  Ja was ready to go about 4 games before the finish of the regular season, but by then the playoff spot was locked in place… there was no need to risk anything.  Ja will play no matter what web- site has him listed as still injured.

T-Wolves: SF Anthony Edwards, PF Jarred Vanderbilt, C Karl-Anthony Towns, PG D'Angelo Russell, PG Patrick Beverley

Grizz:  PG Ja Morant, C Steven Adams, PF Jaren Jackson Jr, SF Dillon Brooks, SG Desmond Bane

Timberwolves: Chris Finch

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins