Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/26/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 26, 2024

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  5-5 last 10

Dallas Mavericks:  8-2 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Dallas Mavericks in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Mavericks in game 2 of this series, Naz Reid led the team in points in that game with 23 while Anthony Edwards was next on the team with 21 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Rudy Gobert led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 41.2% from the field, 38.7% from 3-point range, and 81.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 48-45-2 this season and their O/U record is 49-45-1.

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder twice in a row and the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Timberwolves in game 2 of this series, Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 32 while Kyrie Irving was next on the team with 20 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 13 while Luka Dončić led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.8% from the field, 38.7% from 3-point range, and 68.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 57-39 this season and their O/U record is 43-52-1.

The current betting odds have the Mavericks listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 3rd seeded Timberwolves and the 5th seeded Mavericks for the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. The Mavericks have a 2-0 series lead after winning game 2 of this series on the road. The Timberwolves have been a good road team this season with their 26-15 road record, but they have still looked a lot better on their home court and they have already blown 2 of their home games in this series. They lost a really close game by 3 points in game 1 and they had a chance to bounce back in game 2 and at least even this series going back to Dallas, but instead they folded up in the 2nd half of that game after taking a double digit lead in the 1st half and they went on to lose by 1 point in the end. The Timberwolves have now put themselves in a big hole as there is a chance they don't even make it back to Minnesota for another game. They have had no answers for Doncic or Irving in this series so far and their task is only going to get harder on the road now. The Mavericks also have a ton of momentum on their side now with 4 wins in a row and they have been just as good on their home court this season as they have been in their road games. The Mavericks have a golden opportunity here to bury the Timberwolves in a 3-0 hole at home which is a series deficit that no team in the NBA has come back from so expect them to bring their best effort in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mavericks to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Mavericks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 26, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Mavericks 109 Timberwolves 103.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 19-10 ATS as an underdog. 27-18 ATS in road games. 11-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 15-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs. 11-6 UNDER revenging 2 straight close losses vs opponent of 3 points or less. 21-13 UNDER revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points.

Dallas Mavericks: 30-46 ATS after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. 5-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 4-7 ATS after 3 straight wins by 6 points or less. 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3. 10-3 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive wins. 12-6 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

Dallas Mavericks:  O. Prosper (PF) Out indefinitely - Ankle. M. Kleber (PF) Out Fri - Shoulder. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

“Luka was definitely involved in a lot of that. He makes a lot of great reads out of the pick-and-roll. We tried to show him different looks. He kept making the right reads. It’s all him. We’ve just got to figure him out. But we’ll figure it out.” - Anthony Edwards after their loss against the Mavericks in game 2 of this series on Friday.

“As you’ve seen with Luka, he loves that stage. He doesn’t run from it. I thought he was great the whole game, keeping guys together, his energy.” - Jason Kidd after his team’s win against the Timberwolves in game 2 of this series on Friday.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)