Big Al

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 6/13/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Jun 13, 2022
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Phillies -135, Marlins +115
BetMGM: Phillies -140, Marlins +115
Caesars: Phillies -141, Marlins +120

Season record
Marlins: 27-31
Phillies: 30-30

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Marlins - Phillies preview and analysis


We learned on Sunday that the Philadelphia Phillies do, in fact, know how to lose after firing Joe Girardi. After a nine-game winning streak that reveresed forturne and prevented Philly fans from throwing more snowballs at Santa, the Phillies finally lost on Sunday, a 13-1 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

But the Phillies will continue their homestand on Monday when the Miami Marlins -- coming off an impressive weekend in their own right -- will face Philly in a riveting battle between the third and fourth place teams of the NL East.

Normally, I wouldn't get excited for a matchup like this, but there's a lot to like as it pertains to what we're getting in these three games, and it starts with the pitching matchup on Monday -- particularly from the visitor's side.

We've talked a lot all year about the Marlins' ascension to being a .500 team, and the pitching is the reason behind that. The starter on Monday, Sandy Alcantara, has been a major catalyst behind that. He's 6-2 this season with a 1.61 ERA, garnering some serious NL Cy Young consideration.

The Marlins had their five-game winning streak end on Sunday in a 9-4 loss to the Houston Astros. In short, they lost to Justin Verlander and there's not a lot of beating him right now. Miami actually trailed only 5-4 heading to the eighth, but Jose Altuve's late three-run homer ended any comeback hopes.

It's hard to come back at all when they have only three hits total, but I swear it was a 5-4 game with only three hits. That's majorly impressive. Bryan De La Cruz hit a three-run homer off Verlander in the seventh, but that was just about it. Jorge Soler scored on an error to kickstart the rally.

“They were attacking me a lot with the fastball yesterday,” De La Cruz said via an interpreter. “They were doing the same plan today. I don’t know if they thought I wasn’t going to be able to hit the fastball. I missed a couple of times, but thankfully, I was able to put solid contact on the third one.”

It's an incredible story for De La Cruz, who spent the first seven seasons of his baseball life with the Astros organization before being traded for Yimi Garcia. The bigger picture: They took two of three against one of the best teams in the American League. That's something.

What's also something is the Phillies going on this run for interim manager Rob Thomson's first loss on Sunday. Philadelphia ran out of gas in that 12-run loss, even though it was just a 3-1 game heading into the fifth. J.T. Realmuto went 3 for 4 at the plate, but nothing else was had. Bryce Harper went 0 for 4, Kyle Schwarber hitless in four at-bats.

"Have to dust ourselves off and go get them tomorrow," Thomson said.

They won the series and that's what matters. But this matchup isn't going to be a walk in the park like in years past. The Marlins are much improved and will show that in this series. Alcantara will take on Aaron Nola in the opener.

Prediction


I don't want Phillies fans to completely fall off the rails, but this will be a second straight loss. Alcantara is pitching lights out right now and is not going to be the same guy that the Phillies have rocked before. Marlins win 6-3

Betting trends


Marlins are 15-7 against division opponents this season.

Marlins are 8-13 as a road underdog this season.

Phillies are 6-14 against division opponents this season.

Phillies are 7-6 this season as a home favorite between -125 and -175.

Projected lineup


Marlins:
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jorge Soler (R) DH
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Jesus Sanchez (L) CF
Willians Astudillo (R) 3B
Nick Fortes (R) C
Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF
Luke Williams (R) LF
SP - Sandy Alcantara

Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Mickey Moniak (L) CF
SP - Aaron Nola

Statistical leaders


Marlins:
Batting average: Garrett Cooper -- .315
Home runs: Jorge Soler -- 12
RBI: Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- 40
Wins: Sandy Alcantara -- 6
ERA: Sandy Alcantara -- 1.61

Phillies:
Batting average: Bryce Harper -- .316
Home runs: Kyle Schwarber -- 16
RBI: Bryce Harper -- 45
Wins: Zack Wheeler -- 5
ERA: Zack Wheeler -- 2.84

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