Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/17/2021

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Amway Center, Orlando, FL

Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Sun 

DraftKings: Heat -3.5

BetMGM: Heat -3.5

Caesars: Heat -3.5

Heat: 17-12 (5th place, Eastern Conference)

Magic: 5-24 (14th place, Eastern Conference)

Heat: won three of four; won 101-96 at 76ers on Wednesday

Magic: lost 13 of 14; lost 111-99 vs. Hawks on Wednesday

Even though they’re without two All-Stars, the Miami Heat have found ways to win.

The Heat come into Friday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic, having won three of four with wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers. There’s a 26-point win over the Chicago Bulls sprinkled in there, but we have to consider the ridiculous COVID outbreak happening in the Windy City.

But the Heat, without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, found a way to win again on Wednesday, 101-96 at the 76ers. A young man by the name of Gabe Vincent has taken advantage of an increase in playing time. In his third NBA season, Vincent had a career-high 26 points and made seven 3-pointers in the win.

"Everybody is putting their hearts and souls into this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. "I really appreciate this team and what they put into the process. We knew guys were going to have to step up, and we had that tonight."

The key to all of this is how well the Heat have shot the ball without Kyle Lowry reaching apex production. Lowry shot only 4 of 12 but had 14 points, as all five Heat starters scored in double figures; Duncan Robinson finished with 21 on four 3-pointers, and P.J. Tucker even had another double-digit effort with 12 points.

In addition to winning three of four, the Heat have covered in three of four while being underdogs in all those games. Miami was getting 6.5 points against the Bucks, 8 against the 76ers, and surprisingly 1.5 with half of the Bulls roster in COVID. The under has cashed in three of the last four, indicating that Miami’s defense (as expected) is carrying the bulk of that roster.

Friday will be the first time since Dec. 6 that the Heat will be favored in a game; they were laying 5.5 points in a 15-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies at home. But it helps Miami’s cause that the young Magic have been bad, as well as being hit with bad injury luck. Good news may be on the horizon, as guards Cole Anthony and Gary Harris, as well as big man Mo Bamba, are all questionable after missing time due to various injuries.

The bad news is the Magic have just not been good. They come in having lost 13 of 14 mostly due to injuries, but also due to the lack of talent around them. Orlando is also without top draft pick Jalen Suggs for the foreseeable future.

Mo Wagner led the way with 19 points off the bench in Orlando’s 12-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.

"We talk about the next man up and those guys who came in, they played hard and played together," Magic coach Jamahl Mosley said.

The Magic are 4-3 against the spread in their last seven, but keep in mind the spreads; most have pushed between 7.5 and 15 points during that time. Orlando is only getting 4.5 at most books and facing a tough Miami defense is not the right formula.

I was shocked the way Miami bounced back against Milwaukee last week after losing by double digits in consecutive games. Spoelstra is always ready with this group, no matter who is on deck. Even if Orlando is somewhat remotely healthy, the Heat are in good position to win again and keep this run rolling. Heat by 14

The Heat are 65-56-3 ATS over the last three seasons and are 84-40 straight up.

The Heat are 30-19 ATS in their last 49 after a combined score of 205 or less.

The Magic are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 as home dogs of six points or less.

The Magic are 37-38 ATS in the last three seasons after playing a home game.

PG: Kyle Lowry

SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Max Strus
PF: P.J. Tucker
C: Dewayne Dedmon

PG: Cole Anthony

SG: Gary Harris
SF: Franz Wagner
PF: Wendell Carter Jr.
C: Mo Bamba

Heat: Jimmy Butler (back, out), Bam Adebayo (thumb, out), Markieff Morris (neck, out), Caleb Martin (COVID, out), Tyler Herro (quad, questionable)

Magic: Gary Harris (hamstring, questionable), Mo Bamba (ankle, questionable), Cole Anthony (ankle, questionable), Jalen Suggs (thumb, out), Markelle Fultz (ACL, out)