Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/11/2025

Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, January 11, 2025

Venue:  NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Chargers -3, Texans +3; Over/Under:  42.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Chargers -3, Texans +3; Over/Under:  43 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Chargers -3, Texans +3; Over/Under:  43 points

Los Angeles Chargers:  11-6 (2nd place, AFC West)

Houston Texans:  10-7 (1st place, AFC South)

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Los Angeles Chargers:  won their last game on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders 34-20.

Houston Texans:  won their last game on the road against the Tennessee Titans 23-14.

The Chargers finished the NFL regular season with an 11-6 record overall and they were 4-2 in their divisional games. They were 5-3 in their home games, 6-3 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 34-20. Justin Herbert was the starting QB and he completed 28/36 passes for 346 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. J.K. Dobbins led the team in rushing yards with 63. Quentin Johnston led the receivers with 186 receiving yards on 13 receptions. Tarheeb Still led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Daiyan Henley came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Texans finished the NFL regular season with a 10-7 record overall and they were 5-1 in their divisional games. They were 5-3 in their home games, 5-4 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Tennessee Titans 23-14. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 6/6 passes for 50 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions before getting replaced by Davis Mills who completed 12/22 passes for 128 yards. Dameon Pierce led the team in rushing yards with 176 and 1 TD. Robert Woods led the receivers with 39 receiving yards on 2 receptions. M.J. Stewart led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Derek Barnett and Mario Edwards Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Chargers listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chargers have looked good in their games this season with their 11-6 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AFC West and in the 1st Wild Card seed. They are going into the playoffs with 3 wins in a row now and have had a really good season with Jim Harbaugh only being in his first year as head coach. Meanwhile, the Texans have looked good in their games this season with their 10-7 record overall which has them leading the AFC South and as the 4th seed in the AFC, but they also won a really weak division where they were the only team with a winning record. They ended the regular season with a win over the Titans last week, but the Titans finished with the worst record in the NFL this year. The Texans haven't looked that good over the last month either and have definitely taken a step back this season from the team they were last year in DeMeco Ryans’ first year as head coach and CJ Stroud's rookie year. The offense hasn't looked good and before that win against the Titans to end the regular season, they were limping into the playoffs. The Chargers have looked like the better team all season and they have been getting hot going into the playoffs. They also have the better defense to lean on that will cause a lot of problems for this up and down Texans offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chargers to cover the spread in this game. 

Chargers Texans Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Saturday, January 11, 2025 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Chargers 27 Texans 17.

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Los Angeles Chargers: 17-10 ATS in road games. 11-5 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 6-2 ATS after a win by 14 or more points. 9-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 8-4 UNDER off a road win. 4-1 UNDER after a 2 game road trip.

Houston Texans: 2-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 2-7 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 8-14 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 31-20 UNDER in all games. 17-8 UNDER in home games. 14-4 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 9-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Los Angeles Chargers:  T. Jefferson (SAF) Injured - Hamstring. J. Scott (P) Injured - Illness. G. Edwards (RB) Out - Ankle. J. Dobbins (RB) Questionable - Knee. T. Pipkins (T) Out - Hip. H. Hurst (TE) Questionable - Illness. E. Molden (CB) Questionable - Knee. O. Ogbonnia (DT) Injured - Pelvis. C. Hart (CB) Injured - Concussion. D. Perryman (LB) Out - Groin. W. Dissly (TE) Questionable - Shoulder.

Houston Texans:  D. Autry (DE) Questionable - Knee. S. Mason (G) Out - Knee. W. Anderson (DE) Injured - Hand. C. Harris (LB) Injured - Ankle. J. Metchie (WR) Injured - Shoulder. C. Stover (TE) Injured - Illness. N. Broeker (G) Injured - Hand. F. Fatukasi (DT) Out - Foot. J. Scruggs (OL) Out - Foot.

“I'm very proud of the way the team played, starting with the quarterback. I'm not going to say unbelievable because I believe it and I see it every day. But there were throws that he was making ... that were like handoffs. They were right where you would put it if you were handing the ball off on a running play. Just an incredible game by him.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s win against the Raiders in their regular season finale. 

“We’ve earned a right to play postseason football, which is always our goal and now we’re excited for whatever opportunity comes next, whoever we’ll play, not sure who that will be yet." - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the Titans in their regular season finale. 

WR Johnston, Quentin

WR Chark, DJ

WR McConkey, Ladd

TE Dissly, Will

QB Herbert, Justin 

RB Dobbins, J.K. 

FB Matlock, Scott 

WR Collins, Nico

WR Hutchinson, Xavier 

WR Metchie III, John 

TE Schultz, Dalton

QB Stroud, C.J.

RB Mixon, Joe 

Passing: J. Herbert (3870)

Rushing: J. Dobbins (905)

Receiving: L. McConkey (1149)

Touchdowns: J. Dobbins (9)

Passing: C. Stroud (3727)

Rushing: J. Mixon (1016)

Receiving: N. Collins (1006)

Touchdowns: J. Mixon (12)

Coaches:

Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (1st season)

Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (2nd season)