The Market Place:
Like any marketplace, a buyer and seller agree on a price - in this case a line. But knowing the line is only half the picture. Understanding the forces affecting line' movement (the volume of bets, percentage of bets on the home team and the percentage of bets on the away team) is essential in determining the true value of any line. We always check this data. That begins our public money vs sharp action analysis.
Ticket percentage(s):
Ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll notice the sharp action if the figures aren’t similar.
Public Money Ticket(s):
From October through June, bettors and fans alike will have NBA basketball on their televisions almost every evening. With so many games available to bet on – how should you pick what to bet.
Look at the money and bet-percentage splits, of course. This data is provided to you directly from sportsbooks ahead of games each night during the season so you can see where both the public money and percentage of tickets are concentrated for each game. This is our start to “follow the money”.
What signals Sharp Action?
A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.
Money Percentage(s):
Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).
Bet Percentage(s):
Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards. Naturally, this works for football and basketball.
Get that Information:
Many sites will charge you to access this information, but some free options are available if you dig deep enough. Homework is mandatory for all those that are successful. Don’t be that “other” guy. Do the work or follow us.
Good Luck,
Wayne Allyn Root