Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/18/2021

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Monday, October 10, 2021

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +100, Red Sox -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +100, Red Sox -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +100, Red Sox -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

 

Houston Astros:  95-67 (1st place, AL West)

Boston Red Sox:  92-70 (2nd place, AL East)

 

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Houston Astros:  7-3 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  8-2 last 10

 

 

 

The Astros are coming into this game after dropping game 2 of this best-of-seven series against the Red Sox. The series is all tied up 1-1 after the Astros lost 9-5 on Saturday. Luis Garcia was given the nod as an opener and then Jake Odorizzi took over after the 1st inning for the next 4 in game 2 of this series so Jose Urquidy will be the starting pitcher on the mound in this game 3 on Monday. He is 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA this season. He has been credited with 4 straight wins and his team has won their last 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 games when he has pitched. In his last start, he allowed 3 ER, 2 of them being homers, and 1 BB with 3 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Oakland Athletics back on Sunday October 3rd. He has seen the Red Sox lineup in 1 game this season back in May and he is 1-0 against them as he only allowed 1 run in that game, his team going on to win that one. The last time he pitched in the postseason was last year and he pitched in 4 games, 3 as a starter and 1 coming out of the bullpen as a reliever. They lost that game he pitched in as a reliever and his team went 1-2 in the 3 games that he started, he was credited with just the 1 loss. Their offense has scored 41 runs in their last 6 games averaging a little under 7 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 31 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 5 runs per game.

 

The Red Sox are coming into this game after winning game 2 and tying up the ALCS 1-1 going back home for the next 3 games with a chance to close out the series at home. They have now won 4 of their last 5 games in these playoffs. This will be game 3 of this series against the Astros on Monday. Nathan Eovaldi was the starter in game 2 on Saturday so Eduardo Rodriguez will be throwing the first pitch in this game on Monday. He was credited with a loss in his last start where there was a decision but his team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. In his last start, he allowed 2 ER and 0 BB with 6 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings of work against the Tampa Bay Rays in the last round of these playoffs, the ALDS. He has seen the Astros lineup 2 times this season and he is 0-1 against them while his team is 0-2 against them with him starting. He allowed 6 runs in each of those games. He has already pitched in 2 postseason games this year and he allowed 2 runs in each of those games. His team has won 6 of their last 8 games when he has appeared in a playoff game going back to the 2018 playoffs when he was pitching for the Red Sox in those games, the year they won the World Series. Their offense has scored 39 runs in their last 6 games averaging 6.5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 30 runs against them in that same span allowing 5 runs per game. 

 

The Red Sox just scored 9 runs in their last game and their offense has really started to come alive in this series and their last against the Rays. They were the hottest team coming into the playoffs and still are having won 8 of their last 10 games. The Astros could not get it done at home to take a 2-0 lead and now will have to go on the road in Boston for 3 straight games. The momentum is with the Red Sox coming into this one, their offense is playing well and they are also getting good pitching in the important parts of the game when they need the outs the most. The best bet to place in this game is on the Red Sox to win here.

 

Astros Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Monday, October 10, 2021 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 8 Astros 5.

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Houston Astros: 99-69 (-4 units) on the money line in all games. 38-32 (-17.3 units) on the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5. 45-38 (-2.2 units) on the money line in road games. 36-31 (-10.6 units) on the money line after a loss.

Boston Red Sox: 62-39 (+3.6 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 97-72 (+13.7 units) on the money line in all games. 52-32 (+8.2 units) on the money line in home games. 8-2 (+6.6 units) on the money line in October games.

 

 

Houston Astros:  L. Garcia (SP) day-to-day - Knee injury. J. Siri (CF) Ques Mon - Finger injury. J. Meyers (CF) Ques Mon - Shoulder injury.

Boston Red Sox:  P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness.

 

 

Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel is one player to watch in this matchup. He led his team in batting average and in hits during the regular season. He was really involved in the offense in game 2 as he had 2 hits, 3 RBI and scored 1 run. They lost that game but he still gave it his all at every at bat so look for him to do the same here and help his team win this one.

 

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers is one player to watch in this contest. He led his team in hits, RBI, and in home runs during the regular season. He helped propel his team to victory in game 2 with 1 hit, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. He has been on a hot streak recently so look for him to continue that in this game.

 

 

"Yeah, it's not a good feeling, when you know you're live on air and you see that ball leaving the ballpark." - Dusty Baker on being on a live interview as Kike Hernandez smashed a game tying home run in game 1.

 

 

“But coming here, being at home, making the series the best-out-of-five and hosting three, it makes us feel good, but we still face one of the best teams in the Big Leagues. They’re really good offensively on the road, and you saw it yesterday for how big of a lead it was, it was never comfortable with them. They’re always a walk and a bloop and a swing away from making it interesting, and they did it yesterday. We expect that out of that offense the whole time.” - Alex Cora on his team’s mindset coming into this game 3.

 

 

 

J. Altuve 2B

M. Brantley LF

A. Bregman 3B

Y. Alvarez DH

C. Correa SS

K. Tucker RF

Y. Gurriel 1B

C. McCormick CF

M. Maldonado C

 

K. Schwarber 1B

E. Hernandez CF

R. Devers 3B

X. Bogaerts SS

A. Verdugo LF

J.D. Martinez DH

H. Renfroe RF

K. Plawecki C

C. Arroyo 2B

 

Batting Average:  Y. Gurriel (.319)

Hits:  Y. Gurriel (169)

Home Runs:  Y. Alvarez (33)

RBI:  Y. Alvarez (104)

Stolen Bases:  K. Tucker (14)

Wins:  L. McCullers Jr. (13)

Saves:  R. Pressly (26)

ERA:  K. Graveman (1.77)

 

Batting Average:  X. Bogaerts (.295)

Hits:  R. Devers (166)

Home Runs:  R. Devers (38)

RBI:  R. Devers (115)

Stolen Bases:  C. Vazquez (8)

Wins:  E. Rodriguez (13)

Saves:  M. Barnes (24)

ERA:  R. Brasier (1.50)

 

Managers:

Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (2nd season)

Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)

 

53 degrees F partly cloudy, 77% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 12 mph wind speeds SE.