Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, April 21st, 2022 

Venue:    Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Spread: Warriors -1.5; O/U 224

Fanduel:  Spread:  Warriors -1.5; O/U 223.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Warriors -1.5; O/U 224.5

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference; 2-0 Playoffs

Nuggets: 48-34, 6th place Western Conference; 0-2 Playoffs

An NBA first round Playoff matchup.  OUCH!  The Nuggets are getting smacked around, the Warriors have beaten them twice and the Nuggets have lost ATS twice.  The head scratching thing is the Nuggets are now closer in point spread then they have ever been.  As is the home court is dripping with a magical water that will revive all the plasyrs around Nikola Jokic.  It woon’t… they won’t.  Nikola Jokic… leads these Nuggets in Points, Rebounds, and Assists…. And FG%.... And Steals…. And Blocks.  The man literally had no help.  The two players that could hello him are out with injury SG Jamal Murray and PF Micheal Porter Jr.  Conversely, the Warriors are as deep as the Mariana Trench.  The Warriors have so many capable players and future Hall of Famers that they literally don’t know which future Hall of Famer to sit to make room for SG/PG Jordan Poole… their future, possibly next season's all-star player.  The Warriors are the league’s most recent dynasty…. The Past is the future again.

The Warriors have beaten the Nuggets twice in a row… both were wins ATS…. AND THE SPREAD has gotten smaller?.  Chalk this up to Vegas putting too much pressure on the home court advantage.  It makes no sense and the great betting opportunity is obvious here.  There is no guarantee in betting… the Houston Rockets could beat the Phoenix Suns ATS tomorrow… but still… we have a two game sample size where the Nuggets best punch has been parried.  The Warriors have run rough shod.  The Warriors won the last game 126-106. PG Stephon Curry had 34 points, SG Jordan Poole had 29 points, other SG Klay Thompson had 21 points, and that is just the backcourt! SF Wiggins, C Looney, and PF Draymond Green had bad offensive games because they only had to play defense!  They held C Nikola Jokic to 26 poinyts and 11 rebounds… which sounds great… but in order for the Nuggets to win … or (gasp) win ATS… Jokic will need a 35 point 17 rebound game with only 15 assists… he could do it… during a full moon… and a red tide… and whatever other harbinger you can dream of.

The Nuggets have lost two playoff games in a row and lost ATS both times.  Vegas wants you to think that being at home carries enough weight to shrink the spread!  Dont.  Simply take the free money. Last game this happened:  Jokic -26, Gordon -12, Green -7, Barton -10, Morris -10, Forbes -8, Rivers -17, Green -10, Hyland -13, and Cousins +5.  That was the +/- scale of production while you are on the floor.. Only the guy who played 12 minutes had a positive effect.  The Nuggets do not match-up at all. Jokic is expected to do everything which he can… but he can not defend every position.  Jokic is the player in the league that MOST NEEDS a trade request in order to not be forgotten in the sands of time.  The last time I was at the Land Rover dealership I said: “ Let’s see how this Warriors-Nuggets game turns out”... and yes.. It is gun-metal gray with a winch and a roll bar!... and wow! Is it beautiful!   

Including last night's winner on the Mem/Min total, Ben Burns is a PERFECT 5-0 with his L5 "top rated" plays, in all sports. Going back further and looking specifically at hoops, we find his top rated plays are on a LEGENDARY $120.6K PROFIT HEATER. Ben's only postseason "BLUE CHIP" came in the play-in tourney and resulted in a DOUBLE-DIGIT WINNER! Get Ben Burns’ picks!  Stay with us all throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

 

Our prediction for Thursday, April 21st is….. Warriors 132 - Nuggets 110

Another big win for the Warriors!  Do not bet the other way… the spread is simply dumb.  It is gambling… you may have an itch… just take the free money off the NBA when Vegas offers it! Ignore the Over/Under… the Warriors are better on offense AND defense… so it could be a low scoring 20 point win or a high scoring 20 point win.  I’m putting a lot on this, personally. (all my Penn State money, if you have been reading these previews since the college football season).

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Golden State is 3-1 ATS versus Denver over the last 3 seasons.

3 of 4 games in this series have gone Under the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 31 Over and 16 Under after one or more consecutive Overs.

Warriors: SG Andre Igoudala (Neck) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Nuggets: PG Austin Rivers (back) Quest ** PF Michael Porter Jr ** SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, SG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson

Nuggets:  C Nikola Jokic, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, SG Will Barton, PG Monte Morris

Warriors: Steve “too many rings” Kerr

Nuggets: Michael “can I hold your rings” Malone