The college hoops season is more than a month old. The teams have played enough now that we can sit back and look for regression candidates in one way or the other. I want to take a look at teams who could positively regress in the near future. These are teams where there are reasons to believe they are better than the marketplace has them rated. These are in no particular order.
UAB Blazers (3-6 ATS) The UAB Blazers have been wildly inconsistent so far this year. They showed how good they can be with their 42-12 start against Southern Miss early in the year. They also lost to Longwood and Illinois State. Andy Kennedy is a good coach, and I think this team can be a money earner going forward. They are just 170th in effective field goal percentage offense, but Shot Quality has them at 23rd in the nation in shot selection. They have been missing a lot of open looks. Opponents are also shooting nearly 80% from the free throw line against UAB. That will regress toward the mean.
Boise State Broncos (2-6 ATS) The Boise State Broncos haven’t been good at covering spreads this year, but Leon Rice always has a high quality team and I like them as a buy low. Boise State is 109th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 34th in shot selection allowed. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation. Opponents are shooting much better from midrange against Boise State than the national average. I think that returns to the average over time. This is a very tall team, and a team with a lot of veteran leaders.
Ohio Bobcats (1-7 ATS) I don’t necessarily think the Ohio Bobcats are a good team, but I’m confident they will start be being better against the spread. They are dead last in the nation in three point defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 45.4% from long range against Ohio. They have been right around 34% on three point defense in recent seasons. There’s no way opponents will keep shooting it this well from three. Ohio takes good care of the basketball on offense, and they shoot it well from the free throw line.
Virginia Tech (2-7 ATS) Let’s finish out the list with a bigger name. Virginia Tech will enter ACC play soon, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The market is very low on them now because of their underperformance to this point. Also, the ACC isn’t a very good conference this year. Virginia Tech will be in the middle of the pack, and that means there should be plenty of opportunities to bet on the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost six straight games overall, and they are going to be a team virtually no one wants to bet. Mike Young is still a quality coach, and I think they’ll do better against the spread in the next few weeks.