Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/12/2024

Game Time: 1:08 pm ET, Saturday, October 12, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -130, Guardians +110; Over/Under:  5.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -125, Guardians +105; Over/Under:  6 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -125, Guardians +105; Over/Under:  6 runs

Detroit Tigers:  86-76 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  92-69 (1st place, AL Central)

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Detroit Tigers:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  4-6 last 10

The Tigers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep 2-0 in their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 86-76 record overall and had a road record of 43-38. This is the series finale of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Guardians on Saturday for the American League Division Series. The Tigers lost the series opener on Saturday, won the 2nd game on Monday, won the 3rd game on Wednesday, and lost the 4th game on Thursday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .685 OPS. Reese Olson was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Tarik Skubal is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight playoff games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 8 Ks on 3 hits through 7 IP against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the Houston Astros 2-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 92-69 record overall and had a home record of 50-30. This is the 5th game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Tigers on Saturday for the ALDS. The Guardians won the 1st game on Saturday, lost the 2nd game on Monday, lost the 3rd game on Wednesday, and won the 4th game on Thursday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .702 OPS. Tanner Bibee was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Matthew Boyd is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA this season. His team lost their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4.2 innings played against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Tigers listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Tigers finished the regular season with an 86-76 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card and they are also 43-38 in their road games. They just knocked the Houston Astros out of the playoffs in the Wild Card Round, winning both games in Houston. Meanwhile, the Guardians finished the regular season with a 92-69 record overall which won them the AL Central, and they are also 50-30 in their home games. This series is tied 2-2 and this will be the final game of the series. Neither team has been strong on offense all year or in this series, but the pitching has been great on both sides. Skubal is on the mound for the Tigers and he has looked great with his 18-4 record this season and his 2.39 ERA. He has pitched twice in the playoffs too and he has looked great in both starts, giving up no runs with his team going on to win both games. Boyd is on the mound for the Guardians here and he is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA. He has looked great all season and also pitched well earlier in this series, giving up no runs in almost 5 innings, but his team did lose that game to the Tigers with the bullpen blowing it late. Both bullpens have been great but the edge here goes to the Tigers, especially with Skubal on the mound who can pitch deep into this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Tigers to win this game. 

Tigers Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 12, 2024 (1:08 pm ET start time) is Tigers 2 Guardians 1.

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Detroit Tigers: 21-28 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 22-30 (-4.6 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 4-1 UNDER in playoff games. 31-23 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

Cleveland Guardians: 94-70 (+15.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 51-30 (+10.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 48-37 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 34-21 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher. 26-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Detroit Tigers:  J. Rogers (C) Probable - Wrist. K. Carpenter (RF) Questionable - Hamstring. A. Faedo (SP) Sixty Day IL - Personal. J. Baez (SS) Sixty Day IL - Hip. S. Gipson-Long (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  T. Freeman (CF) Questionable - Oblique. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It’s always comforting to have Tarik Skubal on the mound.” - A.J. Hinch after his team’s loss against the Guardians in game 4 of this series on Thursday.

“It’s win or go home. You want your best pitchers out there as long as possible.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s win against the Tigers in game 4 of this series on Thursday.

Parker Meadows (L) CF

Kerry Carpenter (L) DH

Matt Vierling (R) RF

Riley Greene (L) LF

Colt Keith (L) 2B

Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B

Zach McKinstry (L) 3B

Trey Sweeney (L) SS

Jake Rogers (R) C

Steven Kwan (L) LF

Kyle Manzardo (L) DH

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Will Brennan (L) RF

Andrés Giménez (L) 2B

Bo Naylor (L) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Kerry Carpenter (.284)

Hits:  Riley Greene (134)

Home Runs:  Riley Greene (24)

RBI:  Riley Greene (74)

Stolen Bases:  Zach McKinstry (16)

Wins:  Tarik Skubal (18)

Saves:  Jason Foley (28)

ERA:  Jackson Jobe (0.00)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.292)

Hits:  José Ramírez (173)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (39)

RBI:  José Ramírez (118)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (41)

Wins:  Ben Lively (13)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (47)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

Detroit Tigers: A.J. Hinch (4th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)