The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the league phase just around the corner now, it is time to see what value can be found with qualifying teams in the League Phase.
League Phase Winner
Real Madrid +500: Real Madrid is +500 to finish the League Phase in 1st place with the most points. They are the defending champions of the competition, but they also improved their squad in the summer. They take this competition very seriously as they have dominated it over the last few years, and they also finished the group stage last season with a perfect 6-0-0 record. They have a favorable path in the League Phase with their 8 matches as well. Real Madrid could easily win all 4 of their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs that they were drawn against. There is also a very good chance that they pull away 6 points from the 2 home matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 teams. That would leave them with 18 points from 6 matches and there is a good chance they are going to get points from the 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs as well. Real Madrid could be sitting at the top of the league phase with 20+ points after 8 matches and they have a very good defense that will help improve their goal differential if they finish tied with any teams on points. For these reasons, there is a lot of value in Real Madrid at +500 to top the League Phase after the 8 matches have been played.
Top 8 Finish in League Phase
Liverpool -138: Liverpool is -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but they have a very good chance of making that happen. Liverpool did not qualify for Champions League last season as they were not a top 4 team in the Premier League the season prior, but they improved a lot last season and they are not going to take this opportunity for granted now that they are back in the competition. Focus will be very high for this squad, and they have the quality to be a top 8 finisher. The two strongest teams that they drew in the League Phase are Real Madrid and Leverkusen, but both of those matches are going to be at home which favors Liverpool as they could get some points from those. Their away matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 clubs will be tough as well, but RB Leipzig is a team they can get a point from and AC Milan is a team they could grab all 3 from, even being away from home. Then they have their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs which they could collect full points from. They have a lot more quality than teams like Girona and PSV, and their 2 stronger opponents in Bologna and Lille are both home matches. Liverpool could come out of this League Phase with around 18 points and that would be enough to get them into the top 8. There is value in Liverpool at -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.
Barcelona -134: Barcelona is -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they have both the quality in their squad as well as a softer path to make that happen. Their home match against Bayern Munich is going to be their toughest match on the schedule, but being at home gives them a better chance to get something from that match. They also get the Europa League champions Atalanta, but that match is also at home. Their 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs are against Dortmund and Benfica respectively, but those are both matches they could collect all 3 points in, or at least get something from it. Their pot 3/pot 4 draws consist of BSC Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda, Stade Brest, and Monaco. Monaco away from home will be the toughest of those 4 matches, but they could very well collect all 12 points from those matches with the quality they have. Barcelona may get tripped up in the knockout stages of this competition, but they still have a lot of quality in their starting XI and their draw in this League Phase makes them a good pick to finish in the top 8 with the softer path. There is value in Barcelona at -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.
Bayer Leverkusen +130: Bayer Leverkusen is +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they are coming off of a very good season in which they were dominant. They won the Bundesliga Title as well as the DFB Pokal in their domestic league, and they also went to the Final of Europa League which they lost to Atalanta. They were a dominant team in Europa League all season though and after winning the Bundesliga Title last season, they will be turning their focus to Champions League this year. They did not improve their squad much in the summer, but they retained a lot of the quality they had last season and were considered one of the better teams in Europe all year under Xabi Alonso. They are going to be a threat in this competition and they do not have a tough path in the League Phase either. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be their away match against Liverpool. They have another tough match against Inter Milan, but that match is at home making it more likely that they still pick up points from it. Their home match against AC Milan is a match they can definitely win and their away match against Atletico Madrid could net them some points as well. Then they have away matches against Brest and Feyenoord as well as home matches against RB Salzburg and Sparta Prague, but all of those matches are winnable so there is a good chance they can take 12 points from those or at least 10. Between the quality of this squad from last season and the path they have in the League Phase, there is value in Leverkusen at +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.
Atalanta +400: Atalanta is +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but this is a team that has defied the odds over the last year. They had a great season in Serie A last year, finishing in 4th place, and they won the Europa League Title as well. They improved their squad by bringing in some more attacking talent when they already have a lot of quality in that area. They have also been a strong away team that has had no trouble picking up points and wins away from home, and that is going to be crucial in this League Phase qualifying. They have a bit of a gauntlet to go through with their pot 1/pot2 matches, but they still have a chance to pull some points from those. They face Arsenal and Real Madrid but both of those matches are at home which will soften the blow. They also have an away match against Barcelona which will be difficult, but their away match against Shakhtar Donetsk is definitely a winnable match. They are also going to excel against the weaker team as they face Celtic and Sturm Graz at home, both matches they should easily win, and they face BSC Young Boys as well as Stuttgart away from home, both of those being teams they can beat away from home as well. Atalanta has a very favorable path against the weaker teams and they are the Europa League champions from last season so the next step for them is to try and win Champions League this season. They may not make a deep run in the competition, but their ability to consistently pick up points away from home will be key in this tournament and they have a very good chance of finishing in the top 8 as one of the final teams. There is value in Atalanta at +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.
Top Team in League Phase Domestically
Bundesliga - Bayern Munich +110: Bayern Munich is +110 to finish with the most points in the League Phase out of all the teams that play in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich is going to be a team that finishes in the top 8 as this is a competition they will be focused on, but Champions League is also a competition that they have made some deep runs in. They went to the Semi Final last season before getting knocked out by eventual champions Real Madrid, and they are going to be a force in this League Phase with the weaker path they have. Bayern is going to be focused on being the best team in Germany this year after going trophyless last season, and they have the quality to collect around 20 points from these 8 matches. Dortmund and RB Leipzig also have tougher paths so that is going to help Bayern finish ahead in points. Leverkusen could be the closest German team to challenge them, but that will only motivate them more seeing Leverkusen’s success. Bayern has the experience to go deep into this tournament and they will dominate the League Phase as they did go 5-1-0 in last season’s group stage. There is value in Bayern Munich at +110 to finish with the most points out of all the German clubs.
La Liga - Real Madrid -120: Real Madrid is -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in the Spanish La Liga. Real Madrid are the defending champions of this competition from last season, but they have also dominated Champions League over the last few years. They were a perfect 6-0-0 in the group stage last season and they have a very good chance at being the team that finishes with the most points after the League Phase out of all the teams in the competition. They improved their squad this season with even more quality and they also have a lot of depth as well. They will be focused on repeating as the champions, but they also have a much weaker path which is going to help them rack up points in the League Phase. Their pot 1/po2 matches consist of Dortmund, Liverpool, AC Milan, and Atalanta, but none of those teams are a real daunting threat for Real Madrid. There is a very good chance that they finish with around 20 points after the League Phase is done, and they even have the possibility to go a perfect 8-0-0 between the strength of the path and the strength of their squad. There is a lot of value in Real Madrid at -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in La Liga.