BYU Cougars vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/28/2024

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 28, 2024

Venue:  McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  BYU +2.5, Baylor -2.5; Over/Under:  45.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  BYU +3, Baylor -3; Over/Under:  45.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  BYU +2.5, Baylor -2.5; Over/Under:  45.5 points

BYU Cougars:  4-0 (1-0) (3rd place, Big 12)

Baylor Bears:  2-2 (0-1) (14th place, Big 12)

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BYU Cougars:  won their last game at home against the Kansas State Wildcats 38-9.

Baylor Bears:  lost their last game on the road against the Colorado Buffaloes 38-31 in overtime.

BYU is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Kansas State 38-9. Jake Retzlaff was the starting QB and he completed 15/21 passes for 149 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Sione I Moa led the team in rushing yards with 76 and 1 TD. Chase Roberts led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Crew Wakley led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jack Kelly led the defense in sacks with 1. Harrison Taggart and Tyler Batty each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Baylor is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Colorado 38-31 in OT. Sawyer Robertson was the starting QB and he completed 11/21 passes for 148 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Sawyer Robertson led the team in rushing yards with 82 and 1 TD. Hal Presley led the receivers with 43 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Matt Jones led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Keaton Thomas and Steve Linton each led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall and they are coming off a really tough loss in their last one. They just lost their first conference game of the season in Colorado and they lost that game in OT after leading really late but giving up a Hail Mary for Colorado to tie the game. Their other loss was against Utah on the road and even though that wasn't technically a conference game, they are still 0-2 against Big 12 opponents this season. They will be looking to bounce back at home though, especially after the way they lost last week, so expect them to bring their best effort for this game. Meanwhile, BYU has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall, but this is a let down game for them. BYU is coming off a really nice win over Kansas State at home and they blew K-State out in that game. Now they are going on the road though and this will be their first road conference game of the season. They are due for a let down after beating a ranked K-State team while Baylor is going to be searching for a win to bounce back with off that tough loss. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game. 

BYU Baylor Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 28, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Baylor 23 BYU 17.

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BYU Cougars: 4-0 1H ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 3-0 1H ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 9-3 OVER in road lined games. 6-2 OVER off a home win. 9-5 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.

Baylor Bears: 5-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 5-10 1H ATS in home lined games. 3-8 1H ATS after playing their last game on the road. 9-5 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. 13-7 OVER against conference opponents. 12-2 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

BYU Cougars:  H. Ropati (RB) Out - Undisclosed. L. Martin (RB) Out - Ankle. J. Brown (OL) Out - Knee.

Baylor Bears:  B. Washington (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“You got to make them earn it all and eventually we were able to crack the code a little bit and get some turnovers and create some momentum and then you saw the result.” - Kalani Sitake after his team’s win against KSU in their last game. 

“Heart-wrenching loss. Haven’t really been a part of something like that, especially down to the last play of overtime. ... Very hard to take. The team is very is gutted right now, and so frustrated. We’re probably going to be hurting all the way back to Waco.” - Dave Aranda after his team’s loss against Colorado in their last game. 

 

WR Marion, Keelan 

WR Roberts, Chase

WR Epps, Kody 

TE Hill, Keanu 

QB Retzlaff, Jake

RB Martin, LJ 

WR Presley, Hal

WR Cameron, Josh

WR Hawkins, Ashtyn  

TE Johnson, Kelsey

QB Finn, Dequan

RB Reese, Richard

FB Yates, Gavin

Passing: J. Retzlaff (990)

Rushing: J. Retzlaff (103)

Receiving: C. Roberts (310)

Touchdowns: M. Ta'ase (2)

Passing: S. Robertson (463)

Rushing: D. Pendergrass (157)

Receiving: J. Cameron (142)

Touchdowns: S. Robertson (2)

Coaches:

BYU Cougars: Kalani Sitake (9th season)

Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (5th season)