As we prepare for betting football, knowing where the sharp money is is always valuable, and this is the easiest and most definite circumstance to be able to spot it.
One of the power factors when it comes to effective handicapping is one that is often overlooked and misunderstood by many bettors – the public action. Once you understand how the public views a game you can look at why they are betting like they are, how that is impacting the line moves, and what opportunities that presents for us.
When it is on the underdog:
As I have stated for 40 years, the public almost always likes the favorite. I’m fairly shocked when the public bets an underdog. That’s because the public doesn’t necessarily look at who is likely to cover the spread, but rather who is likely to win the game. When the public isn’t on the favorite – especially if that’s a favorite that they should like – then there is something going on with the game, and there could be a real opportunity.
When it isn’t where you would expect it to be:
When I first look at any game I like to think about two things before I look at the odds – what I think the line should be, and who I expect the public to be on. If the actual line differs significantly from what I think it should be then I look closer to see if there is a good reason why I am wrong, and if there isn’t I have found value. If the public isn’t where I expect them to be then I also try to figure out why, and if it isn’t obvious then there’s a good chance that the line has some value to be found.
Number of tickets vs Amount bet:
First of all, this is a look at the total number of bets that have been placed on each team, not the total amount of money that has been bet. Books are happy to share the number of bets, but they are not at all interested in sharing real information about the amount of money that has been bet because then people can know how much they have won or lost on a particular game. The books are far too secretive for that.
When it is heavy on one side and the line moves the other way
The betting lines work as a market if the action is heavily tilted to one side the line will adjust until the action is more closely balanced. In some cases, though, you’ll find situations where you would expect the line to move in one direction based on the public action, but it actually moves significantly in the other direction. What this means is that the smaller percentage of bets on the one team actually represents the larger amount of sharp money bet. That in turn means that the average amount bet on the team that the public doesn’t favor it much higher, and that probably means that the serious bettors are aggressively on the side the public isn’t on.