August Starting Pitching AL Overachievers
There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of August, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.
Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez had a great first season for Minnesota and after going 11-8 last season he is 12-9 this season. His strikeout rate has fallen, and his ERA is significantly higher, while his FIP is also a bit higher as well. Lopez has turned in back-to-back scoreless outings in mid-August, but both came against disappointing teams and his run of improved results in August deserves some skepticism. In August he holds a 2.25 ERA but his K/9 is only 7.1 and he has allowed 23 hits in his 24 innings of work for alarming numbers. The difference has been stranding over 85 percent his baserunners in that small sample, which is not a pace he’ll likely be able to sustain down the stretch.
Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays
After a tough 2022 season with the Blue Jays, Berrios has earned his contract with good results in back-to-back seasons. This season his 3.79 ERA comes with a 4.97 FIP however and he is on pace for a career low strikeout rate at 7.1 K/9. Berrios is 4-1 in his five August starts, but his FIP is 4.30 next to a 2.94 ERA. He has allowed six home runs in those five starts and he has allowed 29 hits in those five starts despite keeping most baserunners from scoring. His best three starts in August came against losing teams with two of those starts at home, where Berrios has always had stronger splits. The Blue Jays have a touch schedule in early September as they will play a role in shaping the wild card races in both leagues.
Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals
Last season Cole Ragans was inconsistent but showed flashes of brilliance. He has turned in a solid 2024 season but after making the All-Star team with a 3.16 ERA in his first 20 starts, his ERA is 3.63 with a 4.18 FIP in his last seven starts. Ragans is 4-2 in decisions in those starts but he has allowed at least three runs four times. Ragans has not pitched that well at home this season with a 3.83 ERA in 82 innings at Kauffman. In August Ragans has a 4.67 FIP in 28 innings with a 4.2 BB/9 and a 1.5 HR/9, even while facing several marginal offensive teams. Ragans is already well past a career high in innings this season and as the Royals look to confirm a playoff spot, he may be held to limited innings down the stretch.
Joey Estes – Oakland Athletics
Oakland has been a play-on team in recent weeks, but Joey Estes has overachieved in August, posting a 3.03 ERA. Estes has only two quality starts in August and his FIP is 4.75. His K/9 in August is below 7.0 and he has allowed six home runs but only 10 runs. Four of his five starts in August were at home and he also got to face the White Sox in that run. Estes had only 10 MLB innings to his name before this season and while it has been a successful 2024 for the 22-year-old, he was just a 16th round pick in 2019 and managed just an 8.5 K/9 in AAA last season and an 8.3 K/9 this season in six AAA starts. Oakland will be worth a look in many underdog situations down the stretch with a good bullpen but some of the other starters in the rotation may offer more potential.