Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, April 17th, 2022 

Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Spread: Heat -6.5; O/U 216.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Heat -6.5; O/U 217

BetMGM:  Spread: Heat -6.5; O/U 216.5

Hawks: 43-39, 8th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference

An NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Game 1.  The first place team vs the eighth place team.  History tells us that the 8th place team loses and very rarely makes it a quality series.  History also tells us that the point spread can go haywire as Vegas tries to catch up to the appropriate level of competition.  The Atlanta Hawks are a mystery.  They played flawed basketball all season and needed two elimination-game wins in the Play-In Tournament to get the 8th spot… in order to even be here.  Yet this is the same team with the same leader, PG Trae Young, who brought this team on a magical run through last season’s playoffs all the way to a competitive Eastern Conference Finals. The Hawks will be up for a seriously tall order to do it again as they will start these Playoffs without C Clint Capela who hyperextended his knee in the Play-In tournament… and completely without PF John Collins who is out with an injury.  The failure to trade John Collins at the trade deadline will comeback to haunt these Hawks.  The Miami Heat have been the class of the conference all season long.  They are deep, they have defensive abilities, they have a high quality two-way player, SF Jimmy Butler, as their leader and star.  They have shooters for days.  Too bad they don’t have a big ol’ quality Center…. C Bam Adebayo is fantastic… yet he is undersized and his whole game flows through athleticism… If the Heat had a real 7’0 monster center that could allow Bam to slide over to PF… The Hawks would have no chance. As it stands the Hawks can still compete for rebounds against the Heat as both teams will most likely play the same small-ball style.

The Atlanta Hawks have won 8 of their last 10 games.  They went 8-2 ATS during that stretch.  They turned it on late, but apparently it is ON.  In the Play-In tournament they had to beat the Charlotte Hornets to stay and did… then they had to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers to stay and did. In the Process they went 2-0 ATS. They have been a great betting opportunity (that i personally missed).  The thing they keep showing the world is that PF Danilo Gallinari is a perfect replacement for John Collins.  Bird watchers of the last few years know that John Collins brings more strength and power… but Danilo easily brings more offensive skill and experience.  In the Cleveland win.. Danilo was suddenly blocking shots during the hectic 4th quarter scrum.  Danilo was pulling in rebounds… two things that are needed if you want to have his scoring on the floor. The real metric for the Hawks is always going to be the performance of PG Trae Young who had 38 points and 9 assists against the Cavaliers… the amazing part of that stat is that 32 of the points came in the second half as the Hawks caught up and then pulled away. A player to watch when the Hawks play the Heat is Forward De’Andre Hunter.. He is the Hawks best pure two-way player… taking defensive assignments to heart and giving it his all.  Hunter will be on Butler… that matchup determines whether the Hawks even have a chance.

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last ten games… and simply cruised to a first place finish.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Heat have been supremely disrespected.  Totally and completely.  Anytime a TV talking head talks about who will ultimately win the East… they say the 76ers, the Bucks, the Celtics… even (gulp) the Nets!!  WTF!  The Heat won the Eastern Conference regular season.  The Heat had the most wins.  The Heat have zero players throwing a tantrum and simply refusing to play for a year… the Heat don’t have any players that have given up on two teams in the last year… The Heat don’t have any players that spend entire games being completely invisible (2 of the Bucks Big 3 do this).  The Heat played the Hawks in the second to last game of the season… and won 113-109.  In that game, that was just 9 days ago, Trae Young scored 35 points and got 8 assists. But Miami slammed them right back with regular games from Adebayo, Butler, Lowry, and Herro… see when you have a well balanced team… you do not to rely on a single guy to go off for near 40 points anytime you get to a big game… a well-balanced, deep team just plays their regular game and gets wins.

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The Hawks are 45-39 on the season, but 37-45 ATS.  They logged 43 Overs and 39 Unders.  They are 17-25 in road games.

The Heat are 53-29 on the season, but 46-35-1 ATS.  They have notched 49 Overs and 33 Unders. They are 29-12 in home games.

The Hawks are 6th in scoring with 113.9 ppg, 20th in rebounds with 44 per game, and 4th in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank 21st while allowing 112.4 ppg.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.

Our prediction for Sunday, April 17th is…..  Heat 118 - Hawks 111

The Heat will win and cover.  C Clint Capela will miss Game 1 for the Hawks… the Heat are at home. The Heat are rested and healthy.  The Hawks have been playing every other night since the last game of the season.  It will be all too much for the Hawks to overcome.  Plus Miami’s defense got to play the Hawks just 8 days ago… AND watch them twice as the Play-in Tournament unfolded..

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Miami is 34-18 ATS versus Atlanta since 1996.

36 of 54 games in this series have gone UNDER since 1996.

Miami is 5-1 ATS versus Atlanta at Miami the last 3 seasons.

Hawks: SG Lou Williams (back) Out ** C Clint Capela (knee) Out ** PF John Collins (foot) Out indefinitely

Heat: No injuries to report.  The Heat rested Adebayo, Morris, Herro, and Tucker for the last game of the season… so if you see their names on any web-site that is old and wrong info… They will all be available.

Hawks: PF Danilo Gallinari, SF De’Andre Hunter, C Clint Capela, SG Kevin Huerter, PG Trae Young

Heat: C Bam Adebayo, PF Markieff Morris, SF Jimmy Butler, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Tyler Herro

Hawks: Nate McMillan 

Heat: Erik Spoelstra