While the National League still has some things to sort out, the American League playoff field is set, though the matchups could shift in the final weekend of the regular season. Here is a look at some of the season splits and potential starting pitchers for the AL Wild Card round.
New York Yankees
24-15 vs. AL playoff teams (4-2 vs. CLE, 6-1 vs. HOU, 5-8 vs. BAL, 5-2 vs. KC, 4-2 vs. DET)
The Yankees have outlasted Baltimore for the AL East title and will finish just ahead of Cleveland to take the #1 position in the AL field. New York has cooled off at the plate with just a .694 team OPS in the past four weeks compared to a .761 season OPS. New York’s lineup has superior numbers vs. right-handers with a .778 team OPS, compared to just .718 vs. lefthanders. New York was only 20-23 vs. left-handed starters in the regular season.
Gerrit Cole figures to lead off in the rotation for the Yankees even if he is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons in an abbreviated 17-start campaign. His final two starts of the regular season were both excellent, though he has pitched much worse at Yankee Stadium this season. Carlos Rodon gives the Yankees a veteran lefthanded starter and after some inconsistency early in the season Rodon had a great final month. Luis Gil was terrific as an unexpected key piece in the rotation for New York and he figures to be in line to start in the playoffs with Nestor Cortes injured and Marcus Stroman struggling. Clarke Schmidt outpitched Stroman down the stretch and it will be interesting to see how New York moves forward with his ALDS roster construction for a potential fourth starter.
Cleveland Guardians
19-25 vs. AL playoff teams (2-4 vs. NYY, 1-4 vs. HOU, 4-3 vs. BAL, 5-8 vs. KC, 7-6 vs. DET)
The Guardians have not been a great hitting team this season with a .703 team OPS on the season, a figure they have matched over the final four weeks of the season. Cleveland has struggled vs. right-handed pitching with a .685 team OPS but has been effective vs. left-handers batting .251 with a .751 team OPS and 56 home runs. The Guardians have one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB as well. Cleveland heads into the season finale with a 50-30 home record and as the AL #2 seed they will host the first two games against one of the wild card winners in the Division Round later next week. Cleveland finished 29-11 vs. left-handed starters in the regular season.
Tanner Bibee presumably will get the Game 1 call for Cleveland and the team’s three main starters right now are all right-handed with Gavin Williams and Ben Lively following Bibee. Left-hander Matthew Boyd is an option as well, while veteran Alex Cobb is likely to come off the IL but has only made three starts this season for Cleveland. Rookie Joey Cantillo is also going to get consideration for the playoff roster as well as Cleveland has some difficult decisions to make in mapping out what may be an unconventional pitching plan in the playoffs as the team has a tremendous bullpen.
Houston Astros
18-14 vs AL playoff teams (1-6 vs. NYY, 4-1 vs. CLE, 5-2 vs. BAL, 4-3 vs. KC, 4-2 vs. DET)
The Astros have rather balanced offensive splits, with just a slight edge vs. left-handers with a .752 team OPS compared to .736 vs. right-handers. Over 75 percent of Houston’s home runs came against right-handers, however. In the final month of the regular season Houston had a .755 team OPS for a slight uptick from the season numbers and the Astros had similar winning percentages against right-handed and left-handed starters.
While Houston’s offense fell short of many of the team’s recent seasons, the pitching staff is formidable. Framber Valdez should garner some runner-up Cy Young votes with a terrific season line including a 1.96 ERA since the All-Star Break. Valdez and trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi are lefthanded to give Houston good options on both sides. Hunter Brown had a breakthrough season for Houston and had a tremendous second half run with a 2.26 ERA since the break. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander had an incomplete regular season and had mediocre results in his 17 starts as his role this fall is a big question mark for Houston.
Baltimore Orioles
20-20 vs. AL playoff teams (8-5 vs. NYY, 3-4 vs. CLE, 2-5 vs. HOU, 4-2 vs. KC, 2-4 vs. DET)
The Orioles didn’t play great baseball down the stretch posting a losing record in both July and August while hovering around .500 in September and overall, since the All-Star Break. The Orioles won 46 road games and did provide a bit of a spark on the season’s final road trip taking series wins in New York and Minnesota. Baltimore lost the division to the Yankees but is 8-5 head-to-head with New York, should they get another opportunity in October. Baltimore’s batting splits are nearly identical vs. right-handers and left-handers but the team had just a .714 team OPS in the final month compared to .751 for the season.
Corbin Burnes had a strong season to justify his acquisition as a staff ace but now is where it counts after the Orioles had a quick exit from the playoffs in 2023. Burnes has good numbers in his postseason career, mostly from 2018, but he did have his worst career playoff outing last October in a wild card loss to the Diamondbacks. Zach Eflin and Deam Kremer are capable arms to start behind Burnes, with Albert Suarez in the conversation to start as well with all four Baltimore starters right-handers.
Kansas City Royals
22-24 vs. AL playoff teams (2-5 vs. NYY, 8-5 vs. CLE, 3-4 vs. HOU, 2-4 vs. BAL, 7-6 vs. DET)
Kansas City has a losing record in September, but they have held on to a postseason spot thanks to sweeping three games with the Nationals this week after losing seven in a row in mid-September. The Royals have not hit left-handed pitching well this season with a .674 team OPS and only 33 home runs vs. lefties. Bobby Witt Jr. has hit lefties just fine, but he has an incredible 1.016 OPS vs. right-handers as he and many of the Royals will prefer to draw right-handed starters. Kansas City has just a .574 team OPS in the past four weeks for a rough patch for the lineup late in the season.
Cole Ragans has been one of the AL’s best starters this season and is one of the top left-handers in the playoff field. Ragans had strong road results and was very consistent all season. Veteran Seth Lugo had an All-Star season, but he has not been as good since the break with a 3.84 ERA following a 2.48 ERA in the first half. Brady Singer also appeared to run out of gas as a fine season deteriorated in August and September as Michael Wacha may move ahead of Singer in the rotation. Wacha has a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star Break. Wacha has not pitched well in his last three playoff opportunities but he had a legendary run in the 2013 postseason.
Detroit Tigers
20-24 vs. AL playoff teams (2-4 vs. NYY, 6-7 vs. CLE, 2-4 vs. HOU, 4-2 vs. BAL, 6-7 vs. KC)
The Tigers have put together an amazing late season run to climb into the playoffs. The offensive numbers have been modest and even in the past month while the wins added up, the Tigers have a worse team OPS compared with the team’s season average. The Tigers have a .693 team OPS vs. right-handers, slightly preferable to the .660 team OPS vs. lefties with Detroit hitting only 29 home runs vs. lefties all season as most of the overall success has been because the pitching staff.
Tarik Skubal is expected to win the AL Cy Young with an 18-4 record and a 2.39 ERA. His first half and second half splits were similar, but he turned in an amazing final month that included a 1.52 ERA and 27 strikeouts. Skubal will obviously take the ball in Game 1 for the Tigers and after that the plan isn’t clear. Reese Olson had a decent season, but he has only made three short starts since missing two months on the IL. Rookie Keider Montero has pitched well in September, but his overall numbers are suspect and he was hit hard against the Orioles in his second to last start. Former #1 pick Casy Mize is also only five starts back from two months on the IL, but he has thrown well in recent outings. Rookie Brant Hurter has the best numbers behind Skubal, but he has only made one start, mostly pitching in long relief. If the Tigers still had Jack Flaherty this would be a threatening group but advancing will likely hinge on Skubal delivering a Game 1 win.
Note – the records and statistics quoted are through Sep. 28 and do not include the final regular season games.