UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song

 
The final UFC in February will be held in the Pacific Northwest, at Seattle's Climate Pledge Arena. The main event sees Henry Cejudo take on China's Yadong Song. Before that 5-round bantamweight bout, Brendan Allen and Anthony Hernandez will renew acquaintances at middleweight. Though the card is a little short on star power, especially after a few cancellations, I've managed to uncover a couple of strong wagering opportunities. I've shared one of them with you below.

The Main Event
Henry "The Messenger" Cejudo (16-4) began his career with 10 straight wins. His 10-fight winning streak came to an end in April 2016, when he was KO'd by Demetrious Johnson. That was followed by a split decision loss. All of a sudden, Cejudo was off back-to-back losses. He promptly answered the bell by winning six straight fights, including a revenge victory against Johnson. Cejudo's 6-fight winning streak has been followed by losses in his last 2 fights. Both were decision losses against top level opposition, only one of the decisions was unanimous. Can the recently turned 38-year old turn back the clock and avoid a third straight loss? Not according to the oddsmakers. Yadong Song, more than a decade younger, is a -270 betting favorite. The total has opened at 4.5o-140. 

Song (21-8) is off a decision loss of his own, also against a top tier opponent. Prior to that, the "Kung Fu Kid" had won two straight and five of his past six. Song was an underdog against Petr Yan in his last fight. The fact that he's such a large favorite on Saturday says as much about Cejudo's age, as it does about Song. It may well go the distance but the younger, faster fighter should prevail. Cejudo says otherwise: "I will make the greatest combat sports comeback of 2025. It’s All or Nothing - Tune in."

The Co-Main Event
Brendan "All In" Allen (24-6) and Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez fought each other in January of 2018. Hernandez won a unanimous decision. On Saturday, seven years later, they'll meet again. Hernandez is a steep -270 favorite to beat Allen for a second time. The total is 2.5o-170.

Hernandez, now 31 years old, has won 6 straight. Only one of those fights went the distance.  Allen, who lost to Imavov last fight, has never lost two in a row. Prior to the Imavov fight, he had won 7 straight. His most recent win was against a fighter (Curtis) who had previously defeated him. So, he does have a history of getting revenge.

The 29-year old Allen said this: “Coming off a loss, I’m always a different monster. It’s different. Plus, it’s a redemption fight for me and, I don’t know, I hope that I go out here, beat ‘Fluffy’ – and I won’t talk bad about ‘Fluffy’ whatsoever or be disrespectful, because I really like ‘Fluffy’ as a human. He’s a great human. But I’m going to go out there and I’m going to do my job. I’m going to finish him and hopefully after that it just shows circumstances weren’t on my side in France and I’m still the killer who should be close to the title shot – and hopefully I get a top-five guy next, really put a statement on them and put me back in contention.”

My Pick
Ibo Aslan and Ion Cutelaba Under 1.5 rounds. We should be able to get some plus money on the under 1.5 rounds in the Aslan/Cutelaba fight. Good value seeing as I don't see this fight lasting very long. Aslan (14-1) has seen 12 of his 15 fights end in the first round. Three of Cutelaba's last 6 fights have also ended in the first round. Go with the under.