25* NBA CONFERENCE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks
- Time
- 04/26/2024 08:18 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-32) has lost four of their last five games after their 96-93 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (51-33) snapped a three-game losing streak to even this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 36.8% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort for their entire season. Kawhi Leonard did return from injury in that game after missing nine games in a row but he was rusty — he made only 7 of his 17 shots while missing nine of his 12 jumpers including an 0-5 mark from behind the arc. With two days off, he should play better tonight as he re-establishes his rhythm. Remember, Leonard had a 51% shooting percentage with a 39% clip from behind the arc in his previous 72 playoff games resulting in almost 29 Points-Per-Game. More ball movement should achieve better shooting results for this team. Los Angeles was still in a position to win Game Two despite that dismal shooting. They outplayed the Mavericks in the other areas of the game: they had more offensive rebounds and scored more second-chance points; they made more free throws; they had fewer turnovers; they had more fast break points; they had more points in the paint and shot a better percentage at the rim. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. After playing their last five games, they go back on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after playing three or more games in a row. Head coach Ty Lue needs to make an adjustment to the Mavericks playing small ball with Maxi Kleber on the court — and that could mean more playing time for P.J. Tucker who did see more action at the end of the season. Dallas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on the road by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a win by six points or less. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 23-27 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by three points or less including four of those last five situations. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
