by Scott Rickenbach
Monday, Apr 29, 2024Though I am known for betting a lot of totals and underdogs, when it comes to spread sports in particular, of course there are plenty of opportunities to bet favorites when the number and/or price is right and the value is there.
One of the keys about favorites is whether or not the home court or home field or home ice or home pitch is properly factored and how that pertains to the team you are wanting to bet. The reason this can be a key is that generally the extra value added to the home team when lines are made is quite standard.
You can get value in betting on or against a home favorite when you factor this in. Since the factor for the home team is generally standard but teams do perform differently than others when at home you get some value spots. This is because some are exceptional and have a huge home edge while others are sometimes even better on the road or at least just as good away from home compared to as a host.
The value can be had in looking for extra line variations based on this home/road value generated aspect. I always do my first handicapping based on situational aspects. But then, after finding the games I want to dive further into, I always factor in the home/road dichotomy of each match-up and how that creates value.
The ones with the biggest variations from the mean are almost always the ones that make the final cut for me. So sometimes I might be backing the undervalued home fave or fading an overvalued home team. The key here is evaluating, for example, should this NFL home team be given the 3 points extra they are being given under the circumstances.
Perhaps a team does not deserve anything extra because they are lousy at home. Or maybe they are ultra strong at home and one could argue the line should have been bolstered by 5 points at home. These are the keys to line value when you like something already but also are happy to see the line factoring on the home team is working in your favor as well! This can be a key to extra betting value throughout a season.
One of the keys about favorites is whether or not the home court or home field or home ice or home pitch is properly factored and how that pertains to the team you are wanting to bet. The reason this can be a key is that generally the extra value added to the home team when lines are made is quite standard.
You can get value in betting on or against a home favorite when you factor this in. Since the factor for the home team is generally standard but teams do perform differently than others when at home you get some value spots. This is because some are exceptional and have a huge home edge while others are sometimes even better on the road or at least just as good away from home compared to as a host.
The value can be had in looking for extra line variations based on this home/road value generated aspect. I always do my first handicapping based on situational aspects. But then, after finding the games I want to dive further into, I always factor in the home/road dichotomy of each match-up and how that creates value.
The ones with the biggest variations from the mean are almost always the ones that make the final cut for me. So sometimes I might be backing the undervalued home fave or fading an overvalued home team. The key here is evaluating, for example, should this NFL home team be given the 3 points extra they are being given under the circumstances.
Perhaps a team does not deserve anything extra because they are lousy at home. Or maybe they are ultra strong at home and one could argue the line should have been bolstered by 5 points at home. These are the keys to line value when you like something already but also are happy to see the line factoring on the home team is working in your favor as well! This can be a key to extra betting value throughout a season.
