by Rod Pearson
Sunday, Apr 28, 2024
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Leafs +124, Bruins -148; Over/Under: 6 goals
Bet365: Moneyline: Leafs +125, Bruins -145; Over/Under: 6 goals
BetMGM: Moneyline: Leafs +120, Bruins -140; Over/Under: 6 goals
Season Record
Toronto Maple Leafs: 46-26-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)
Boston Bruins: 47-20-15 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)
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Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs: 3-6-1 last 10
Boston Bruins: 6-4-0 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Preview and Analysis
The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 102 points, a 46-26-10 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Bruins in their last game, losing that one at home 3-1. Mitchell Marner scored 1 goal for them in that game. Tyler Bertuzzi and Ilya Lyubushkin each led the team in assists with 1 while Tyler Bertuzzi, Mitchell Marner, Joel Edmundson, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, and John Tavares each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 17 shots with 14 saves and a .824 save percentage before getting replaced by Joseph Woll who stopped all 5 shots he faced. Their offense has scored 303 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 263 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.
The Bruins are entering this game with 109 points, a 47-20-15 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 3-1. Brad Marchand, David Pastrňák, and James van Riemsdyk each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, Mason Lohrei, Pavel Zacha, and Charlie McAvoy each led the team in assists with 1 while David Pastrňák led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Jeremy Swayman was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 25 shots with 24 saves and a .960 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 267 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 224 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bruins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Bruins and the 3rd seeded Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division for Round 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bruins have a 3-1 series lead after winning game 4 of this series on the road. The Bruins lost game 2 on their home ice and that really threw a wrench in their plans of sweeping the Leafs in this series, but they bounced back big with 2 wins on the road and now they are going back home for game 5 with the Leafs on the verge of elimination. The Leafs have been a better road team this season than they have been on home ice so it is no surprise that the Bruins took advantage of that in those 2 games, but the Bruins have also looked really good on their home ice this year with their 24-11-6 home record. Auston Matthews is also banged up for the Leafs now as he is dealing with an illness and he is really the backbone of this team. The Leafs haven't had any success against the Bruins in the playoffs in years either and being down 2 games in this series now going back on the road, it doesn't bode well for the Leafs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bruins to win this game.
Maple Leafs Bruins Prediction: Our NHL Pick for Tuesday, April 30, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Bruins 3 Leafs 2.
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NHL Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs: 51-49 (-30.1 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 52-36 (-10 units) on the moneyline after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games. 6-1 UNDER after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game. 9-4 UNDER off a home loss by 2 goals or more. 6-1 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series.
Boston Bruins: 60-29 (+12.7 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 45-17 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline after playing a game where 4 or fewer total goals were scored. 16-9 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games. 5-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive road wins.
Key Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: B. McMann (C) Out Indefinitely - Lower Body. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.
Boston Bruins: A. Peeke (D) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Brazeau (RW) Mid May - Upper Body. D. Forbort (D) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. M. Poitras (C) out for season - Shoulder. M. Lucic (LW) out for season - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“He’s been giving us everything. Ultimately, the doctors pulled him.” - Sheldon Keefe on Auston Matthews after his team’s loss against the Bruins in game 4 of this series on Saturday.
“Guys were committed. We played tight. Guys did a great job getting back and getting sticks in lanes and making it tough on them.” - Brad Marchand after their win against the Leafs in game 4 of this series on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Bertuzzi, Tyler
C Matthews, Auston
RW Domi, Max
LD Rielly, Morgan
RD Lyubushkin, Ilya
G Samsonov, Ilya
Boston Bruins
LW DeBrusk, Jake
C Zacha, Pavel
RW Pastrnak, David
LD Lohrei, Mason
RD McAvoy, Charlie
G Swayman, Jeremy
Statistical Leaders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: A. Matthews (107)
Goals: A. Matthews (69)
Assists: M. Marner (59)
GAA: M. Jones (2.87)
Boston Bruins
Points: D. Pastrnak (110)
Goals: D. Pastrnak (47)
Assists: D. Pastrnak (63)
GAA: J. Swayman (2.53)
Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)
Boston Bruins: Jim Montgomery (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
